Running The Numbers #15

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic PDC, 7.10
Format - Classic, Matches

I actually crawled out of my hole this week to play in the tournament, so this write-up is from a closer perspective than usual. From a distance I summed up the tournament in my opening: Green Aggro Ko's Black Removal. For this week that is how that tournament really looks. Looking closer, we do see some detail in the landscape. The Aggro decks this week used employed some different strategies to get to the top and the control decks that were present may not have been the right ones (or, may need to be revised in the face of a more diversified Aggro field) Focusing in again though, we see the Aggro winner is Angel Stompy. Somehow that sounds familiar. Amongst the decks, there was a nice balance of play styles although it would be good to have more counters and a few combos, but it’s not a perfect world. For the tournament, the decks broke down into the following categories:

7.10 - 14 Players

Control - 5: Bu Control, MBC, MUC, Izzetpost W/Black, RnR

Aggro - 6: RB Husk, GW Cloak, Angel Stompy, Mono Green Fatties, Green Token Aggro,
WGu Slivers (w-Drifter)

Midrange (aggro control) - 3: UB Ninjas, UG cip, RB cip

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

When it came to the top4, Aggro ruled the day. I will mention though an important lesson I learned from this tournament that I need to apply to future analysis. Going into round 5 of this tourney I was in 4th place with 9 points. However, there were three players below me with six points. I then lost in round 5 while they all won and I ended up in a 4 way tie for 4th, but 7th on tiebreakers. We have also had tournaments recently where players have dropped from the top 4 and others have qualified only in their place. What have I learned? I need to examine the standings much more closely to get a complete picture of how the decks in the tourneys really did and not just judge according to the top 4/8 or out (not that I always did before, but just that it doesn't tell the whole story). The fact remains though, that the top 3 decks in the tourney went 4-1 in the swiss so it was no a matter of slipping by that got the Aggro decks in the semis as a whole. I was very interested to see that three very different types of Aggro decks qualified for the Elimination rounds and two I would consider atypical for this season. In one Semi we had Green Token Aggro (Tokenfinnity and Beyond) versus GW Cloak. The token deck was very strong in the Swiss Rounds with an ability to overwhelm other decks with numbers. In the long term, this deck may suffer from metagaming difficulties, as it would appear to be much easier to play against when expected. That being said, Classic players are well known for not quickly adjusting to trends such as a need for sweeper spells so the adjustment remains to be seen. The deck may also need to make the same preparations that every other Aggro deck does in Classic_PDC. That being has a way to beat Angel Stompy. More on that in a moment. In the other Semi we had WGu Slivers (w/Mulldrifter) versus the aforementioned Angel Stompy. I will say that I liked the Sliver deck quite a bit (probably something to do with it stomping on me in round 5). Seriously though, I think it has some possibilities and will spotlight it below. Angel Stompy did prevail in this match though and then again in the final over the Token deck. I mentioned it above and I have before as well. If you are playing Aggro in Classic you should probably play Angel Stompy because it beats other Aggro decks like it gets paid to. If you decide not to then you need to devise some way to beat it along with your control matchups.

For a closer look at one of the top 4 this week, I want to zero in on Blue Zoo (WGu Slivers)

Blue Zoo, Classic PDC Top 4

3 Deep Analysis
4 Plated Sliver
4 Quick Sliver
7 Snow-Covered Forest
2 Snow-Covered Island
8 Snow-Covered Plains
4 Gemhide Sliver
3 Momentary Blink
3 Mulldrifter
2 Shimmering Grotto
4 Sidewinder Sliver
4 Sinew Sliver
4 Terramorphic Expanse
4 Virulent Sliver
4 Watcher Sliver

Sideboard
4 Faith's Fetters
4 Prismatic Strands
3 Ray of Distortion
1 Momentary Blink
3 Shadow Sliver

This deck combines the White and Green Slivers from ONS & TSP Blocks with card advantage tools of Momentary Blink and Mulldrifter to present a multifaceted Aggro attack supported by strong defensive tactics and draw. The Slivers in and of themselves aren't very powerful, but together they are able to quickly combine to form dangerous threats. Blink is able to save them from removal and Drifter keep the coming. In particular, Gemhide Sliver smoothes mana and accelerates like other Aggro decks cannot. Sidewinder Sliver acts, as removal for would be blockers. Virulent Sliver presents alternate avenues to victory, and Watcher Sliver add toughness that takes most Slivers out of burn range.
All is not perfect though, and there are some deficiencies in this deck as there are in any other. We can see from Saturday that Zoo had trouble with its own defense against Aggro. Right now Faiths Fetters is the main tool to fight opposing strategies, but I suspect this may not be the best choice in the end considering the amount of enchantment removal many decks already have available to them. In the event that this deck enters a match in which it needs to play the control role, (which will happen since it is not the fastest out there) a better solution may be needed.

The Field Analysis:

Outside of the top 4 we had 10 decks. At the top were three control decks: MUC, Izzetpost W/Black, and Bu Control all tied with three wins. Good, but not good enough on the day. The Izzetpost deck was interesting and I could see it giving other control and Aggro Control decks allot of difficulty with its Counter Suite and Burn endgame. It did have difficulty it seems with aggressive decks on the day dropping both its matches against Green Aggro decks. The MUC deck also lost to two of the Green Aggro decks (Angel Stompy & Green Token Aggro). These two having very low curves and swarming ability. Players would be being wise to take note of this. The other nine pointer was Bu control. it lost to Izzet post and Slivers and needs a bit of work, but has some potential (its my deck so I wont spend too much time on it lest people will think i'm biased) For the rest, we had an RnR, RB Husk, MBC, and some others but it wasn't their day.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

Now that we have gotten past the halfway point, for the remainder of the season I will be keeping track of three stats for each article: Most played decks, Most successful decks, and Head to head records. I will be storing all results though so if there is a particular number or stat you are interested in then feel free to ask in the comments and I'm sure I can drag it out.

Most Played:

MUC - 12
RB Husk - 10
Orzhov Blink - 8
RG Beats - 8

Most Successful (Min 15 Matches):

Angel Stompy - 24-8
MUC - 35-12
Rats & Removal - 15-6
RW Aggro - 9-8

Head to Heads:

MUC vs: RnR = 4-1
Angel Stompy = 3-3
Orzhov Blink = 0-2
RG Beats = 2-0
RB Husk = 3-1
RW Aggro = 3-0

RnR vs: MUC = 1-4
Angel Stompy = 1-0
Orzhov Blink = DNP
RG Beats = 1-0
RB Husk = 1-0
RW Aggro = 1-0

Angel Stompy vs: MUC = 3-3
RnR = 0-1
Orzhov Blink = 3-0
RG Beats = DNP
RB Husk = 2-0
RW Aggro = DNP

Orzhov Blink vs: MUC = 2-0
RnR = DNP
Angel Stompy = 0-3
RG Beats = 1-1
RB Husk = 2-1
RW Aggro = DNP

RG Beats vs: MUC = 0-2
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = DNP
Orzhov Blink = 1-1
RB Husk = 1-2
RW Aggro = DNP

RB Husk vs: MUC = 1-3
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = 0-2
Orzhov Blink = 1-2
RG Beats = 2-1
RW Aggro = 0-2

RW Aggro vs: MUC = 0-3
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = DNP
Orzhov Blink = DNP
RG Beats = DNP
RB Husk = 2-0

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

The variations on Green Aggro this week showed the possibilities for different modes of attack in Classic currently. Specifically, the use of Mulldrifter and Sprout Swarm stand out as cards that have been used more and more recently in top decks to expand their games. Angel Stompy featured a move of Silhana Ledgewalker to the sideboard this week in a move that was discussed in the forums. It may have given it an even faster attack and allowed the more specialized Walker for certain matchups. Next, Izzetpost tappet Black this week to dig into Mystical Teachings and Chilling Shade to enhance its gameplan. Finally, Abyssal Gatekeeper was seen in Black control this week. It may have to be built around, but if used properly it could be an excellent removal creature. Many decks seem to be experimenting and I suppose this is the time to do it. I can't wait till the weekend arrives to see what's next.

Final Thoughts:

Holidays are passed and the action picked up a bit. Aggro won out on Saturday. Will this weekend be different? Where was combo? When will people start playing the same decks? Still a lot of questions.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave