Running the Numbers #16

Running the Numbers #11

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic TPDC, 7.08
Format - Classic, Matches

It feels like ages since I have written up TPDC. Hopefully we can keep up with the deck reporting for the rest of the season so no other tournaments are skipped. Unlike Classic_PDC, the event continues to be an event in flux. A different mix of deck seems to show each week and the ultimate victor has been different each time as well. This has kept the event from establishing a clear tier system of decks and with that it is difficult to know what to prep for /bring appropriately each week. Also, unlike Classic_PDC the Metagame here has had a different makeup with a greater slant to Aggro. This week was no exception and in fact was an extreme case of a return to the early season flood of Aggro decks. For some notable occurrences this week, two Affinity decks appeared and went a combined 0-3, WGu Slivers also appeared twice and went 5-2, and what has happened to Red? 9 decks start the tourney using it and 2 make the top 8 with it (and only 1 of those more than a few cards). Ok, dive in further, lets take a look and see how the tournament decks broke down as a whole. :

TPDC 7.08: 25 Players

Control - 2: Rats & Removal, UR Control,

Aggro - 16: MGA, Fish Aggro, RB Husk (2), Mono Black Aggro (2), Affinity (2), RDW, Blue Zoo (2), GUR Zoo, Elves, Stars & Cogs (2), GW Cloak

Midrange (aggro control) - 4: Orzhov Discard, UG Threshold, BG Madness, Mono U AC

Combo - 3: Freed, Ire, EndlessTango

Aggro Combo - 0:

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

The top 8 this week left us with the following decks; MGA, GW Cloak, WGu Slivers, Rats & Removal, Mono Black Zombies, Stars & Cogs, Mono U Aggro, and Fish Aggro. Quite a few Aggro deck there to be sure. Moving through the swiss undefeated were Green Aggro, Cloak, and the Sliver deck. The lone Control representative in the top 8 was Rats & Removal as the 4 seed. In the top 8, Fish defeated MGA, RnR defeated Mono Black Aggro, Stars & Cogs defeated WGu Slivers, and GW Cloak defeated Mono U Aggro. Moving to the top 4, Fish topped RnR and Stars and Cogs defeated Cloak, and in the final Fish won out over Stars and Cogs. So, Fish passed through well from the 8 seed to take the victory. This deck has done well in its two tournament appearances thus far, but I do still have to be hesitant about its overall power level. I'll focus on it more below in the spotlight. As for the of the top 8 players, The Stars and Cogs build that was played is the same from previous TPDC incarnations this season that are a tad bit slower, but pack Mulldrifter for additional draw and a bit different spell packages. It has performed well in multiple weeks, but appears to have a problem with counters. Blue matchups will be ones to watch in its case as this has been a traditional snag. RnR continues to perform well this season in Classic, although it has been less played in TPDC. I can see it having so snags versus a Blue Aggro deck for card advantage reasons so I am not surprised it lost, but I would not classify it as a poor matchup in the abstract. For a closer look at the winning Fish deck, lets turn on the spotlight:

Mono Blue Fish
TPDC 7.08, Winner (*1st* place)
-------------------------------

21 Island
1 Seat of the Synod
4 Man-o'-War
4 Spire Golem
2 Trinket Mage
2 Errant Ephemeron
4 Looter il-Kor
4 Mulldrifter
4 Ninja of the Deep Hours
4 Phyrexian Walker
1 Bonesplitter
4 Brainstorm
4 Counterspell
1 AEther Spellbomb

Sideboard:
2 Repulse
2 Viridian Longbow
4 Echoing Truth
3 Exclude
4 Hydroblast

First the positives: The deck operates on solid principles of card advantage, reduced costs, aggression, and tempo. It can come out of the gates quickly and place opponents in positions where they are too far behind in board position and hand advantage to recover. It is also able to recover if stifled by a control deck and reconstruct its attack making it a very resilient Aggro deck as well. As usual there are negatives as well. In its two victories, this deck has not dominated the swiss rounds of the tournament, but merely slipped in to the elimination slots. That isn't stated to slam the deck, but simply a fact that it can't be considered a "dominant" archetype as yet. Also, it has not yet seen a full spectrum of matchups. It hasn't played key opponents in MUC and Angel Stompy yet and I have reservations about its ability in those contests. Head to head versus a straight counter opponent with superior card advantage, I wonder how the deck would fare. Most importantly, I think the GW Cloak or Angel Stompy matchups could be problematic because of the limited ability to defend certain creatures such as a Cloaked Ledgewalker. That being said, it appears Aggro Fish is a deck you should be aware of and certainly as a control player you should make adjustments to handle the additional card advantage tools it presents compared to other Aggro decks right now.

The Field Analysis:

The remainder decks left out of the elimination round were: 10 Aggro, 3 Aggro Control, 1 Control and 3 Combo. So many Aggro deck being kept out can be deceiving as the tourney was slanted towards them so much. GWu Slivers & Orzhov Discard missed out on the top 8 on breakers which is something to note. For the others, as mentioned above the Affinity decks couldn't get it done and of the three combo decks none broke through.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

Here are the season records for the top performing TPDC decks thus far. I will bring in Head to Heads in a couple of weeks when I have more data.

Stars & Cogs: 13-6
Orzhov Blink: 21-14
MUC: 14-10
GW Cloak: 13-9
MBC: 12-10
RG Beats: 13-13

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

We had a few little wrinkles this week I wanted to make note of. First, the Aggro Fish deck is certainly a new deck that hasn't been largely played so it is one to watch. Second, the use of Oblivion Stone in GW Cloak was commented on as a solid fill in for Nantuko Vigilante. I can see this being the case as it can take care of any artifact or enchantment, but has much more flexibility in that it can hit creatures and, it is more permanent than say Fetters that can say be sac out from under of. Finally, a couple of cards we haven't seen too often that I liked were Ophidian in the Blue AC & Reaping the Graves in the Black Aggro (I've been messing with this myself). Ophidian is a paper classic & I wonder if it will be useful in pauper. Reaping seems strong vs counters & removal.

Final Thoughts:

With a large field of Aggro, I would expect to see some control next week. Then again this is Pauper when players tend to be a bit stubborn. That being said, if you stay with Aggro I'd have a plan for the others in tow.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave