Running The Numbers #18

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic PDC, 7.11b
Format - Classic, Matches

This week I was the big old host, which is good because I get a better look at what's going on at the tourney than when I just talk to people or just read up on the thread. It was a good tournament I'd say overall. We had a nice number for a Saturday tournament and there was an okay balance between Aggro and Control, which is something we haven't seen a whole lot of this season. For the decks that showed up, it was notable to see three Burn Range decks. What wasn't notable is that they all failed to make the top 8 as this archetype has been winning absolutely nothing. The only other item of real note is that there was a lot of variety there. All the control decks were different in some way (although four did base in Black removal) and the Aggro decks beyond Burn Range were even more diverse in their plans from burn to rush to tokens. Overall, the decks broke down into the following categories:

7.11b - 20 Players

Control - 6: Bu Control, MBC, 3DB, Izzetpost W/Black, RnR, MUC

Aggro - 9: RB Husk, Angel Stompy, Burn Range (3), WR Burn, GB Elf Aggro, GR Beats, Beef Stew

Midrange (aggro control) - 4: Orzhov Blink, Rock Tokens, Stars & Cogs (note: recent S&C builds have shifted a bit slower & added a few more control cards to a degree that I am re-classifying these builds now as aggro-control)

Control-Combo - 1: BGWr Kami Lock

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

Heading out of the Swiss this week the top performing deck were Stars and Cogs at 5-0, Rock Tokens and Bu Control at 4-1. Beyond those we had a number of decks at 3-2. When we last had a top 4 it was all Green Aggro. This week we saw a lot less Green in the tournament and as a certain result only one Aggro deck made in into the top 8. It has been very rare this season for an Aggro deck other than one with Green in it to break through. On Saturday, A GB Aggro rogue build made it in as the 5 seed to represent the attacking mindset. I will touch on this deck more below in the innovation section. Its specific stay in the Top 8 was short lived as it was dispatched by MBC. It is always very difficult for a deck such as GB Aggro to stay in a match versus MBC because it generally doesn't have the tools to hit fast enough to stay ahead of Black's bleed spells or enough card advantage to stay ahead in cards. In general, it always seems close, but note quite there versus these removal juggernauts and even its best tools such as threshold or recursion are easily handled by Black as well (note that I am not referring to a GB Aggro Control deck based in the graveyard and using disruption. These are two different things). In the second quarterfinal, Stars & Cogs faced off against RnR and came out on top. In my experience this is a very close matchup that can go either way, but with Stars & Cogs shifting to greater draw and a less aggressive build with more control elements there may need to be some adjustments on the part of RnR in order to stay in this matchup as the games draw out. In this tourney, I should mention that the RnR deck made in into the top 8 through drops as it did not qualify on points. Moving right along, MUC took on Bu Control in the next pair and emerged with a victory. I can give my own account since I played in this match and even though I ended up losing, I was very pleased with how the match played out. I have recently added Reaping the Graves to my sideboard and it gave me better results than I had gotten previously in the MUC matchup. I have also been using cards such as Abyssal Gatekeeper and Mulldrifter in concert with sac outlets and Crypt Rats in the deck to good effect and I can say I have come to like it so far. Ok, enough of my self-indulgence. MUC did in fact win after all. In the final quarter Rock Tokens and GBWr Kami Lock played the last top 8 match and the Rock came out ahead. We had a couple of pre-Top 8 drops so in reality the multicolor deck would not have qualified if those decks had stayed. In the Semifinals, MUC faced Rock Tokens and Stars and Cogs faced MBC. The Token Deck is one we don't see too often, but when it is brought out it has performed well. I will put the spotlight on this one below. One of the best aspects of this deck is that it is very flexible depending on its opponent's game plan. It carries creatures that can strike quickly with their own pump effects (Husk & Feeder) and a swarming attack through tokens as well that can overwhelm counter based control. It also has main deck disruption and additional in the side for control matchups both counter and removal based. Removal in fact has a somewhat difficult time with a deck such as this because outside of sweeper spells much targeted removal is useless as any creature is just fodder for another. The deck's quality against control opponents can be seen in this tournament as it defeated MBC, MUC, and 3DB in the Swiss rounds. On the other hand The Rock also is not poor against Aggro either. With many token blockers, Deathspore Thallid, Faceless Butcher, Last Gasp, and access to Naturalize in the side it can easily play a control role at any point. The most glaring drawbacks to the deck are a lack of draw or a maindeck method of replenishing its hand and a lack of plan for Protection from Black. The latter is not of a great concern right now because the current metagame doesn’t present those threats, but the former is always a problem for the GB pairing and can be an issue versus the aforementioned sweeper spells. Overall, I am a fan of this deck an have built similar ones myself. Perhaps we will see more of it in the latter stages of this season.

MAINDECK
4 Carrion Feeder
4 Deathspore Thallid
4 Elves of Deep Shadow
4 Faceless Butcher
4 Nantuko Husk
3 Festering Goblin
3 Mesmeric Fiend
4 Fists of Ironwood
4 Last Gasp
4 Scatter the Seeds
7 Forest
7 Swamp
4 Golgari Rot Farm
4 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
3 Duress
3 Echoing Courage
3 Grim Harvest
3 Naturalize
3 Shred Memory

As was mentioned, in the other Semi, S&C faced MBC. In all honesty I was a bit surprised to see Stars come out with a win here. Traditionally MBC has had the upper hand in this matchup. However, the particular MBC build here did have some non-traditional maindeck card choices so that may or may not have impacted the outcome. Also, as was touched on above in the RnR matchup, S&C has made recent changes as well and those could have additionally impacted this matchup in the same way. I will take a look at some of those adjustments below in innovations. In the final MUC and Stars and Cogs went at it with Stars & Cogs emerging victorious. This was also traditionally a poor matchup for S&C so this surprised me as well. Stars is a deck that lives on 187 triggers and recursion of Cogs to drive its draw engine so counters have always made it very difficult for it to establish its game plan. Stars recent adjustments also had an impact here, as it was able to come through victorious in a match where it is typically a large underdog. This is something to pay close attention to because if Stars & Cogs can put up consistent victories against counter based control it will finally move into top tier status.

The Field Analysis:

Of the non-qualifiers there were twelve total decks. The closest to qualifying for the round of 8 with two wins apiece were Angel Stompy, Izzetpost With Black, Beef Stew, and R/B Husk. Angel has had its success this season so we know its good, but I am curious to see if it can continue to put up solid finishes as the number of Black based removal decks grows at tournaments. This week had a large number. This may just be a coincidence, but it will be a trend to keep an eye on. Izzetpost is not really new, but it hasn't been seen a lot lately. I can see it having certain advantages in this meta with the proper cards being chosen. That being said, I expect the refining process will take a bit of time. I have to be honest, I didn't see Beef Stew and have little idea what it is, but I'm throwing my money on some sort of multicolor large creature aggro. Lets see if someone will tell me if I am right. Finally, R/B Husk again appeared and won a couple, but failed to really make an impact. It is a good deck and has a lot of interesting tools. However my feeling is that there are too many matchups where it either has to go to Aggro or Control or hasn't committed to either fully yet.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

For the remainder of the season I will be keeping track of three stats for each article: Most played decks, most successful decks, and Head to head records. I will be storing all results though so if there is a particular number or stat you are interested in then feel free to ask in the comments and I'm sure I can drag it out.

Most Played:

MUC - 13
RB Husk - 11
Orzhov Blink - 9
RG Beats - 9
Burn Range - 8

I never understand why people play the decks that don't win ever and over again. Compare the above list to the one below for an illustration of just that.

Most Successful (Min 15 Matches):

MUC - 40-15
Angel Stompy - 25-11
Rats & Removal - 17-10
Rock Tokens - 12-8
Orzhov Blink - 18-16
MBC - 12-12

Head to Heads:

MUC vs: RnR = 4-1
Angel Stompy = 3-3
Orzhov Blink = 0-2
MBC = 1-0

RnR vs: MUC = 1-4
Angel Stompy = 1-0
Orzhov Blink = DNP
MBC = 1-0

Angel Stompy vs: MUC = 3-3
RnR = 0-1
Orzhov Blink = 3-0
MBC = 1-1

Orzhov Blink vs: MUC = 2-0
RnR = DNP
Angel Stompy = 0-3
MBC = DNP

MBC vs: MUC = 0-1
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = 1-1
Orzhov Blink = DNP

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

There were a few things I liked this week that I want to comment on here both on the innovative and on the new deck front as well. First, as was mentioned above, I believe a big part of Stars & Cogs Success this week came from changes it has made this season to both the sideboard and main deck. First is the addition of Muddle The Mixture. This counterspells came up very big on Saturday stopping key Corrupts in Mono Black Matchups. It is also excellent for its versatility as a tutor as well. This makes it never dead in matchups where holding a counter otherwise could be a liability. Also, the sideboard of the deck features the seemingly innocuous Peek. This spell was seen as the pilot as very important versus MUC because it enabled the ability to play with advance information. Once removing the element of surprise from MUC the Match was said to be a great deal easier to plan out. I also liked innovation in the GB Aggro Elf deck on Saturday that was able to play to a top 8 finish. The use of Elvish Handservant in concert with Elf and Changeling spells to create a very large creature was a nice twist on tribal effects. It was effective in that it didn't really depend on the Handservant to win by itself, which is good because I think that would have been a fragile concept outside of Blue, but rather it incorporated it with other aggressive elements as well. It may not be a dominant archtype, but it is certainly something I had not seen yet and I am curious to see if it progresses either within the GB build or within a somewhat differently meshed out concept.

Final Thoughts:

I honestly can't believe this weekend we will be 3/4 through the season. We have seen a lot of development so far from early Aggro floods to recent Control emerging and MUC being much more under the radar. Worlds is looming ahead and this is a key time to pay attention to what will beat what.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave