Running The Numbers #19

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic PDC, 7.12
Format - Classic, Matches

Rolling back a few days, we had a smaller event on Saturday, but I'm fairly certain it was related to the high profile evening event that was held for Alt PDC so all in all not a big blip really. I was feeing a bit lazy and had some things to do with my dogs later so I didn't play myself, but I did hang out for a while and watch the first few rounds of action. Overall, ten decks rounded out the compact field. The decks were more on the aggressive side with only two true Control decks represented. Angel Stompy was present and I would say has disappointed the past few weeks in both Classic tourneys. I am going to look into this a bit closer when I get the Tuesday lists over the next few days, but I am curious if I has to do with the integration of Rogue Elephant / Harvest Wurm into recent builds or a move of Ledgewalker to the side in some. I'm not sure on either, but I'll have to make some breakdowns before I know. Next, I know some may point to Burn Range making the Top 4 this week as an upswing for the Archetype, but I would hold off until there are more consistent results before running it myself. For a full breakdown of the decks we can see them below in the following categories:

7.12 - 10 Players

Control - 2: UR Ping, RnR

Aggro - 4: Angel Stompy, Burn Range, GW Aggro Pump, Blue Zoo

Midrange (aggro control) - 3: GU Aggro Control, Grand Entrance, BU Ninjas

Control-Combo - 1: BGWr Kami Lock

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

The Top 4 this week was made up of UR Ping, UB Ninjas, Burn Range, and Blue Zoo. The Winning deck was UR Ping, going undefeated throughout the tourney. I have seen this type of deck win before, and I would say that it is a very good strategy as a surprise deck for an event. It fits well into an unprepared aggro field because it is constructed largely of defenders that pick off threats and then focus on the opponent when the time is right. However, I feel that in the long term it is a strategy that can be planned for easily through proper removal or evasion, etc...So, in the grand scheme I am not sure that it will have prolonged success, but I applaud the designer for creativity, metagaming, and gameplay. I am not surprised to see that the Ping deck came out ahead in this one, as there aren't any decks amongst those that are really constructed to handle it. (Typical Burn Range would have a good matchup I suppose, but this particular did not have Fireblast which I would consider key to the deck). Ninja Rats pulled up in second place after going through the Swiss at 3-1. This is a Second solid showing for this deck this season after a previous win. I will look at the build a bit closer below. Rounding out the Top 4 were Burn Range and Blue Zoo. This is a good finish for Burn Range after a season long slump, but I am not convinced it is on its way back. I think a bigger factor may have been the opponents (decks faced, not players) in this particular tournament and I think placings like this on a more consistent basis are needed before my opinion of the decks place in the current meta changes. Bringing it around, here is a closer look at the second place Ninja Rats deck:

Ninja Rats
2 Barren Moor
4 Chittering Rats
1 Cloud Sprite
3 Duress
2 Echoing Decay
7 Island
1 Leonin Bola
1 Lonely Sandbar
4 Ninja of the Deep Hours
3 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
4 Ravenous Rats
1 Seat of the Synod
9 Swamp
4 Trinket Mage
1 Vault of Whispers
1 Viridian Longbow
1 AEther Spellbomb
4 Augur of Skulls
3 Eyeblight's Ending
2 Nightshade Stinger
2 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
3 Annul
3 Condescend
1 Duress
1 Echoing Decay
2 Nausea
2 Terror
1 Eyeblight's Ending
2 Grim Harvest

As mentioned this deck has done well with a Second and First place showing this season to its credit. It works similarly to the Grand Entrance and Stars and Cogs decks in that it uses creatures to generate card advantage and advance its board position with Ninjitsu & Cogs. It is based in Black and Blue and so it is a bit more Contol oriented that those other two decks. On the positive end, It can be very strong when it is able to establish early attackers leading to Ninjitsu threats, early disruptors like Augur of Skulls, and Trinket Mages. Through the first few turns of generating successful CA it has then hopefully created a swarm of attackers and a full hand of resources to an empty handed opponent and a couple of creatures that can be locked down with a Bola. There are some weaknesses here to be exploited though and I'd be remiss to not point them out as well. In many ways I feel the build is at odds with itself. It is at once trying to be a deck with many Control elements, but with the nature of the Ninjitsu mechanic it is difficult to establish a defensive posture when you need to attack in order to most successfully use it. Second, Blue Black has long been a strategy lacking for reach. The deck features many small creatures, but no real manner to deal damage beyond them or evasion within them (save for a few 1/1's). I also see this as a problem when facing decks with more solid defenses. It will have to take the Aggro role in these contests and it doesn't quite have the power to mount such an attack against mass removal or superior card advantage. Overall, I feel it is a good deck in its current form, but that it needs to commit further to one strategy to attain it higher success.

The Field Analysis:

With the six remaining decks in the field we had Angel Stompy, RnR, Grand Entrance, GW Aggro Pump, GBWr Kami Lock, and GU Aggro Control. Not much to really take note of here. The RnR and Angel missing the cutoff can be for many reasons in the short term, we will see if trends emerge. The Kami Lock deck has not done well all season and I think its time to be put away. Finally, Grand Entrance poked up its head for the first time in a while on a Saturday. Still a strong archtype, I am not sure how it fits right now because the meta has been in flux the last few weeks, but it has various weapons so perhaps it can stake a claim if tuned properly.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

For the remainder of the season I will be keeping track of three stats for each article: Most played decks, most successful decks, and Head to head records. I will be storing all results though so if there is a particular number or stat you are interested in then feel free to ask in the comments and I'm sure I can drag it out.

Most Played:

MUC - 13
RB Husk - 11
Orzhov Blink - 9
RG Beats - 9
Burn Range - 9

Most Successful (Min 15 Matches):

MUC - 40-15
Angel Stompy - 26-14
Rats & Removal - 19-12
Rock Tokens - 12-8
Orzhov Blink - 18-16
MBC - 12-12

Head to Heads:

MUC vs: RnR = 4-1
Angel Stompy = 3-3
Orzhov Blink = 0-2
MBC = 1-0

RnR vs: MUC = 1-4
Angel Stompy = 2-0
Orzhov Blink = DNP
MBC = 1-0

Angel Stompy vs: MUC = 3-3
RnR = 0-1
Orzhov Blink = 3-0
MBC = 1-1

Orzhov Blink vs: MUC = 2-0
RnR = DNP
Angel Stompy = 0-3
MBC = DNP

MBC vs: MUC = 0-1
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = 1-1
Orzhov Blink = DNP

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

Being that this event was rather small there wasn't a lot of room for crazy innovation I suppose. The winning deck was certainly a step aside from the usual victor. As we approach Worlds we may see less tech in actual tournaments as players hope to spring it on the big tourney. With this in mind I look towards Morningtide for the next big things.

Final Thoughts:

It is close to time to pick your weapon of choice. With Worlds coming up the meta has been in flux and it is a bit hard to know what people are planning, but I think the strong decks are still as strong as they have been all season.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave