Running The Numbers #20

Running the Numbers #20

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic TPDC, 7.11
Format - Classic, Matches

Last Tuesday has another solid gathering of 24 players. However, unlike previous weeks we were distributed a bit more evenly along the categories and not so slanted to Aggro as in previous weeks. Through the Season, TPDC has really been keyed to me as an Aggro Control dominated event really, so perhaps a field more oriented to that style is appropriate. I will show the complete breakdown as always below. Two infrequently played decks Grand Entrance & MGA faced off in the finals. Perhaps they should get a longer look. Of specific notes, Angel stompy has had some stumbles recently and they continued last Tuesday. I am having some difficulty finding a firm trend because I don't have fully reported decklists right now from the recent tournaments. However, I am going to say that my suspicion lies in the recent tinkering with the creature mix and most specifically the addition of Rogue Elephant and in some cases Harvest Wurm at the loss of Tangle Golem, Silhana Ledgewalker, or Skarrgan Pit-Skulk. I think the initial allure of the Weatherlight creatures was greater speed, but not that they have been added they are pulling away from some of the evasive ability of the deck which in retrospect was important without the ability to burn to the face like R/G can. There are some other negative effects of the Weatherlight attackers as well perhaps that I am not seeing, or I may be mis-guided on this one. This is possible since I am not a player of the deck myself. Perhaps a pilot of the deck can chime in with their feelings on its recent tourney performance. Also of note is the appearance of R/G Thresher. This Aggro Control deck using a combination of Madness, Burn/Removal, Threshold, and LD to present a very difficult opponent. I must admit I was not a big proponent of the deck at that time, but eventually, as the metagame has changed a bit, Maindeck LD and Madness outlets have become much more useful and its large threats are very difficult to kill via damage (read Crypt Rats). As a result I think it may be a good time for this deck to see a revival of sorts. For the breakdown of all the decks we get these groups:

TPDC 7.09: 21 Players

Control - 5: MUC (2), Bu Control, MBC, UR Counter Burn

Aggro - 9: MGA (2), Angel Stompy (3), Burn Range, Elvish Cloaks,
GB Dredge, Elves!

Midrange (aggro control) - 8: Stars & Cogs, Grand Entrance, Orzhov Blink (2), RG Thresher, Orzhov, UBW Madness, UBW AC

Combo - 2: Bug Zapper, Mono R Goblinstorm

Aggro Combo - 0:

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

The Top 8 was made up of these decks: Orzhov Blink, R/G Thresher, MGA, Grand Entrance, UBW Aggro Control, Mono Red Goblinstorm, MUC, and Orzhov Blink. One of the Blinks, the MGA, and the Thresher came through the Swiss at 3-0 and the rest at 2-1. The two Blink decks squared off so you can't really learn anything there. Grand Entrance defeated an interesting UBW Aggro Control deck in another quarter. The UBW deck was very similar to a Blink deck, but I decided to classify it differently after looking over the build and assessing that its just too far a divergence from the Blink type, using a much larger Blue component. In the Third quarterfinal match, R/G Thresher defeated MUC and in the last MGA took out Mono Red Goblinstorm. In the Top 4 a battle of Aggro control decks had Grand Entrance overtaking Orzhov Blink. I don't know that it had an impact in this match, but I don't know how Orzhov can still maindeck Pillories with so many decks right now that it is awful removal against. Especially when black is one of your colors. In the other Semi MGA took out R/G Thresher showing that speed can indeed power. I'm not too surprised by this result. Thresher doesn't pack quite enough removal to turn into a total control deck here and MGA is very stripped down (carrying 17 land) to where I could see it just over whelming the matchup. In the Final, Grand Entrance emerged victorious over the MGA deck. In this matchup Grand Entrance carries a lot of Cog weapons that can slow the weenie aggro Attack and then evasive threats to attack with so again I am not surprised with the outcome in this one either. I believe I mentioned this in another article, but I feel Grand Entrance doesn't get nearly enough play in Classic. It has some very good matchups across the board and in terms of sideboard options Blue and White offer some of the best hosers you will find. To spotlight one of the Top 8 decks, I want to take a quick look at the MGA build that played to 2nd place:

CLASSIC GREEN MACHINE
TPDC 7.11, 2nd Place (5-1)

4 Durkwood Baloth
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Silhana Ledgewalker
4 Skarrgan Pit-Skulk
3 Basking Rootwalla
3 Mire Boa
3 Scryb Sprites
3 Wild Mongrel
2 Tangle Golem
4 Bonesplitter
4 Giant Growth
4 Predator's Strike
1 Vulshok Gauntlets
17 Forest

SIDEBOARD
4 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss
4 Naturalize
3 Uproot
2 Penumbra Spider
1 Thornweald Archer
1 Utopia Vow

So, looking at the deck it become very easy to analyze. Basically it is Angel Stompy without Cloak and a little more pump to up the speed as well. In the Grand scheme this could be a good option in a meta when burn is relatively dead and the lifegain element of Cloak is not needed. As for the Trample effect, it is replaced by the evasive Scryb Sprites and Durkwood Baloth provide a second Fatty. I can't really offer an opinion as to this being equal to Angel Stompy yet or not. I think most importantly, Control players need be aware that there are now other versions spawning as well and packing Enchantment hate to defeat them won't get things done (not that it did vs Angel, but you get the point).

The Field Analysis:

For the decks not making the cut we had 16 also rans which is a big bunch so I will give a quick run down:

Stars & Cogs: Obviously good, just missed out on breakers
Elvish Cloaks: Rogue aggro, not sure what the list is
Angel Stompy: Having trouble lately, is it the creature mix?
Burn Range: Burn range isn't good
GB Dredge: Still in progress, but has potential as a concept
Angel Stompy: See above
Elves: I don't consider "Elves" a viable concept setting aside the fact that i don't have a list for this one
BUG Zapper: Good deck, but combo isn't easy to play
MBuC: Running one of this type myself so I like the idea, but I think it needs tuning
MBC: Has been on/off with success on Tuesdays
UR Counter/Burn: I have seen it do well, but not this day
Angel Stompy: See above
MUC: Obviously good deck, but hasn't been overpowering on Tuesdays
Orzhov: Without Blink, I don't know if that’s a good idea or not
UBW Madness: I like the creativity, but it needs a lot of refining
MGA: Good deck in general style, didn’t' get there, I haven't seen list

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

Here are the season records for the top performing TPDC decks, head to heads, and most played thus far this season.

Records -
Grand Entrance: 14-6
Stars & Cogs: 19-8
Orzhov Blink: 28-17
MUC: 23-13
GW Cloak: 13-9
Angelstompy: 14-10
MBC: 17-14

Most Played -
MUC: 12
Orzhov Blink: 12
MBC: 10
RG Beats: 8
Affinity: 8
Stars & Cogs: 8

Note: Affinity has a bunch of decks, but this is a tad misleading as they have come in clumps of 3-3-2 in terms of decks per tournament.

Head to Heads -

Grand Entrance:
vs - Stars & Cogs 2-0
Orzhov Blink 2-2
MUC 1-1
GW Cloak DNP
Angelstompy DNP
MBC 1-0

Stars & Cogs:
vs - Grand Entrance 0-2
Orzhov Blink 1-0
MUC 0-1
GW Cloak 2-0
Angelstompy DNP
MBC 2-1

Orzhov Blink:
vs Grand Entrance 2-2
Stars & Cogs 0-1
MUC 3-2
GW Cloak 1-0
Angelstompy DNP
MBC 3-2

MUC:
vs Grand Entrance 1-1
Stars & Cogs 1-0
Orzhov Blink 2-3
GW Cloak 1-1
Angelstompy 1-0
MBC 1-3

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

For some new ideas we really don't see a lot when we are this far from a set release. However, we do get some things tried in a different way or brought back. The R/G Thresher deck is something that was gone for a while that was brought back in I have only seen it played one other time this season, but feel it does have merit. I also liked the UBW AC deck as a different twist on the Blink thought. Now as I said I don't see it as Blink because of the amount of Blue it uses. On the other hand, it takes 187 effects and Ninjitsu and focuses on those effects (and even Grim Harvest) to generate an inordinate amount of card advantage through the game. Now this isn't necessarily better than O-Blink per say. It's just a different approach. I will say the mana base could be a big problem if players attempt to attack it and many of the decks spells are at a much higher cost than you would typically see in a Classic deck, so there could be a need for adjustments at some point. In the end in may have many of the difficulties that current O-Blink has, but it is a certainly a different direction to take things.

Final Thoughts:

So this past week was very balanced between Aggro Control and Aggro, and the Control decks loomed Quietly behind. I always Now that the stronger decks have become somewhat clear, I would think it would be somewhat easier for control decks to adjust their plans. We will see next week if they do just that.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave