Running The Numbers #21

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic PDC, 7.13
Format - Classic, Matches

Last Saturday was a great event. Thrown into a hosting role only a few hours before the tournament, we were still able to gather 18 players for the event and I can say for myself I had an awesome time playing and hosting as well. The field had a surprising amount of Aggro control decks entered for a Saturday. I counted up seven total with Orzhov Blink leading the way with three entrants (four if you count the UWB AC variant). My thought on this is that perhaps we are seeing a bleed of the TPDC and Saturday event's metagame's into a more cohesive field as players compete or see what is doing well in one or the other. As for Saturday alone, Aggro was at a very low number this week with only three decks in the action. If this continues, it may cause a ripple in the kind of control decks that are played or at least their makeup towards disruptive rather than creature control elements. As for Orzhov Blink, it is certainly popular both on Saturdays now as well as Tuesdays. Typically this sort of thing draws some attention in the Metagame. We will see in the coming weeks if the Saturday concentration of O-Blink and Aggro Control decks leads to deck adjustments in the other popular Saturday choices. One of the biggest problems Blink faces is that it has more vulnerable areas than most top decks. I'd like to take a look at the winning list from Saturday that could fill some of those holes.

Orzhov Blink - First Place
2 Blind Hunter
4 Castigate
1 Dimir Aqueduct
4 Echoing Decay
1 Island
2 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
2 Orzhov Basilica
4 Pillory of the Sleepless
7 Plains
4 Ravenous Rats
2 Rend Flesh
4 Shrieking Grotesque
7 Swamp
2 Aven Riftwatcher
1 Azorius Chancery
2 Blightspeaker
1 Grim Harvest
4 Momentary Blink
2 Mulldrifter
4 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
2 Blind Hunter
2 Rend Flesh
2 Stinkweed Imp
2 Aven Riftwatcher
2 Blightspeaker
3 Guardian of the Guildpact
2 Mulldrifter

This list diverges from many of the lists that are currently played. I think that some of the choices made enable this build to handle some of the typical problems that Orzhov Blink decks face. Namely:

1. Token and Fast creature rushes
2. Weakness to LD via a shaky mana base

To handle the more aggressive decks and token attacks, this build calls upon Echoing Decay. While this is not a catchall spell, it can be very effective with early rushes and additionally gain the controller some card advantage should a sac outlet not be available. To handle LD disruption this build only runs 2 Karoos as opposed to 4 in other builds. It also places two recently added Mulldrifter in the sideboard for certain matchups and not main. In my opinion this makes a lot of sense as you really don't want to see two in your hand at points in the game and especially early. With such a small amount of Blue mana it is better brought out midgame to refill rather than early. As for the Karoos, cutting two of them avoids the devastation of getting one destroyed on turn 2 or 3. (I should mention, that it is possible that removing a Blue producing Karoo will leave a risky shortage of Blue mana in general, but I can't look at everything). I realize LD is not a maindeck strategy at present, but Orzhov players must be prepared for the eventuality that they will more heavily boarded against if they continue to do well. Now I am not saying this is a perfect or even preferable build. There are certainly a lot of 2 of's here and so overall tuning may be in order. However, I think it is a positive attempt to mitigate O-Blink's more glaring holes and if they can be integrated into a tight build it will certainly strengthen the Archetype against the top tier decks.

For a full breakdown of the decks we can see them below in the following categories:

7.13 - 18 Players

Control - 5: UR Ping, RnR (2), Bu Control, MUC

Aggro - 3: Burn Range, WW, RDW

Midrange (aggro control) - 7: Grand Entrance (2), Orzhov Blink (3), UWB AC, Stars & Cogs

Control-Combo - 1: BGWr Kami Lock

Combo - 2: Freed

Aggro-Combo -1: Bug Zapper

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

Coming out of the Swiss we had two undefeated decks O-Blink (not the one up top) and Freed, and two 3-1 decks, Bug Zapper and UWB AC and the overall makeup of the Top 8 looked like this -
2 Control: Bu, MUC
3 Combo: Freed, Bug Zapper, GBWr Kami Lock (the zapper & kami have sub categories)
3 Aggro-Control: Orzhov Blink (2), UWB AC
The two Blink decks passed through defeating Bu Control & Bug Zapper. MUC took down UWB AC & finally Freed beat GWBr Kami Lock. Moving to the Top 4, The O-Blink decks squared off so for the mirror we can learn something about which pulled through and in the other semi Freed emerged over what is its most difficult matchup, MUC. In the Final O-Blink defeated Freed. Typically, I would expect this matchup to go in the other direction, but as they say, that's why we play the games. For the spotlight today I'd like to take a look at the second place Freed deck.

Land of the Free - Utopia of Freedom, top2
1 Brainstorm
1 Kaervek's Torch
1 Utopia Sprawl
1 Viridian Longbow
4 Dizzy Spell
4 Drift of Phantasms
4 Fertile Ground
4 Freed from the Real
4 Gigadrowse
4 Lifespark Spellbomb
4 Train of Thought
4 Trinket Mage
1 Darksteel Citadel
1 Great Furnace
1 Seat of the Synod
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Tree of Tales
2 Izzet Boilerworks
3 Snow-Covered Forest
4 Simic Growth Chamber
4 Terramorphic Expanse
6 Snow-Covered Island

Sideboard
3 Echoing Truth
4 Hydroblast
4 Moment's Peace
4 Pyroblast

For those unfamiliar I will very briefly explain how this works. Lifespark Spellbomb enchants a land (either a Blue Producing Karoo or a land with Fertile Ground) so now it is a creature that taps for two mana. The Freed From the Real is cast on the Land so it can tap for mana (1 of which is Blue) and untap iself with the Freed to make 1 extra mana each time and produce infinite mana. Then Kaervek's Torch is used for the Kill. There are other roads involving Viridian Longbow or Train of Thought, but they all involve untapping the land with Freed so that is the Combo. The main reason this is so difficult to fight is that the being in Blue, the deck has access to Gigadrowse to lock out defenses and it has Transmute to search out the parts easily. Freed is a good deck make no mistake. It is even better when you aren't ready for it so my best advice would be to be prepared for it. This doesn't mean having instant speed removal. That won't cut it, as Gigadrowse will likely rob you of the ability to cast it. What you should prepare with is some zero mana solution such as Seal of Doom, Spinning Darkness, Prismatic Strands, Snapback, or Fireblast for example. These are not a guaranteed answer either as Darksteel Citadel can stop all but the Snapback. In the grand scheme, a big detriment to Freed is that it is very hard to play well. Accordingly, it isn't played a lot and doesn't maintain a consistent spot in the meta. However, for the sharp players it is always on the radar.

The Field Analysis:

Of the leftovers, RnR stands out as a deck that has had a little trouble in recent weeks. This is easy to understand, as the meta shift away from Aggro will necessitate perhaps some adjustments in its sideboard strategy or a few MD slots.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

For the remainder of the season I will be keeping track of three stats for each article: Most played decks, most successful decks, and Head to head records. I will be storing all results though so if there is a particular number or stat you are interested in then feel free to ask in the comments and I'm sure I can drag it out.

Most Played:

MUC - 14
Orzhov Blink - 13
RB Husk - 11
Burn Range - 10
RG Beats - 9
RnR - 9

Most Successful (Min 15 Matches):

MUC - 43-18
Angel Stompy - 25-14
Orzhov Blink - 27-19
Rats & Removal - 21-15
Rock Tokens - 12-8
MBC - 12-12

Head to Heads:

MUC vs: RnR = 5-1
Angel Stompy = 3-3
Orzhov Blink = 1-2
MBC = 1-0

RnR vs: MUC = 1-5
Angel Stompy = 2-0
Orzhov Blink = 1-0
MBC = 1-0

Angel Stompy vs: MUC = 3-3
RnR = 0-1
Orzhov Blink = 3-0
MBC = 1-1

Orzhov Blink vs: MUC = 2-1
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = 0-3
MBC = DNP

MBC vs: MUC = 0-1
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = 1-1
Orzhov Blink = DNP

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

If I were to look to innovation I would point out the Orzhov build from above. Further, the UWB AC deck that we saw in Tuesday's event showed up here as well to a nice finish so perhaps this is one to keep an eye on.

Final Thoughts:

With Worlds so close and meta shifts occurring it is hard to say what we will see in the big event really. Also, MUC has been laying low recently, and I wonder how much players have relaxed their watch for it. Three events to go.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave