Running The Numbers #23

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic PDC, 7.14
Format - Classic, Matches

To answer the intro question, its too early too tell. I don't feel players have started to adjust to it yet in their decks and plan to defend it. When that begins we will see. Another question I have is: Since when did CPDC become an Aggro Control field? Well, I suppose I'm the best guy to answer that as well. Looking over the season events, prior to the last two weeks the only other time that Aggro Control decks were the most represented category was in week 9. The impact of the shift is likely being felt in the category of Aggro deck as those numbers have slightly dropped over the last couple of weeks as well. Finally, while there was only one control deck last week, in general there have been much higher numbers of control decks played in the second half of the season each week than there were in the first half. Leading the Aggro Control charge certainly has been Orzhov Blink thus far. With a second victory in a row it appears to be gathering steam. Additionally, as I mentioned previously the winning build from the past two weeks is one that has several differences from typical O-Blink builds. Obviously there are many factories that go into victories, but it appears a trend may be there and if I were an Orzhov Blink player I would certainly consider testing the variant at the very least. Notably, two Angel Stompy decks had difficulties in the Swiss rounds. There has not been a really strong Aggro performance from any archetype on a Saturday in a number of weeks, which is likely causing some of the shifting as well. Over the last 4 events there have been a total of 2 out of 19 Aggro deck that have made the top 4 in Classic PDC. I think this a big factor that led us to the field of last week where we had 13 players in the following categories:

7.13 - 13 Players

Control - 2: RnR, Bu Control

Aggro - 3: Angel Stompy (2), Affinity

Midrange (aggro control) - 5: Grand Entrance, Orzhov Blink, Orzhov, Rat Ninjas, Rock Husk

Control-Combo - 0:

Combo - 1: One with Everything

Aggro-Combo - 0:

Unknown - 2:

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

When scaled to the Top 4 we were left with three Aggro Control decks and one Combo so the tourney this past week really focused one style. Orzhov Blink and Rock Husk made it through the Swiss at 4-1 (although one of the Blink wins was to the formidable BYE, so I toss that out in the stats). Also making the cut was One with Everything and UB Rat Ninjas at 3-2 each. If you aren't familiar with how "OWE" works, it features a large number of the dragon enchantments from Onslaught block that it discards from its hand using Last Rites (which also then strips the opponent and it the vital cog to the deck it seems). Then either an Errant Ephemeron or Spire Golem comes cheaply into play and all the enchantments jump onto it creating a monstrosity to attack with and quickly win. It did well with three wins, and it is certainly a sight to see when it works well. That said, it might not have the true protective elements to survive in an expecting environment. It day ended in the Semi-finals as it fell to Orzhov Blink. In the other Semi, Rock Husk overcame UB Ninja Rats. I was very surprised to see that in the finals O-Blink was able to defeat Rock Husk. This is a matchup that I would usually favor the Rock in because of its token generating ability and swarming attack. This give further credence to this particular build as more appropriate to defend the some of the typical weaknesses of the deck.

The Field Analysis:

There were two decks this week that went unreported, so that left us with seven decks that did not make the round of four. Just missing out on the Top 4 for the second straight week was RnR with three Swiss wins. Like many control decks it is not played by a large mass of people, but it continues to do well for the ones that do. It has been the top removal based control deck through the Saturday season its ability to adapt to the meta shift will be key to its viability. Bu Control was able to garner 2 wins in the tourney. There are a lot of variants of this right now but none have consistently won yet. Finally, as mentioned above, 2 Angel Stompy decks were only able to gather one win total. My guess on this is that the deck needs to be tuned up to adapt to other deck's adjustments to it. This is an obvious process that all decks must perform from time to time to keep up.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

For the remainder of the season I will be keeping track of three stats for each article: Most played decks, most successful decks, and Head to head records. I will be storing all results though so if there is a particular number or stat you are interested in then feel free to ask in the comments and I'm sure I can drag it out.

Most Played:

MUC - 14
Orzhov Blink - 11
RB Husk - 11
Burn Range - 10
RG Beats - 9
RnR - 10

Most Successful (Min 15 Matches):

MUC - 43-18
Angel Stompy - 26-17
Orzhov Blink - 27-19
Rats & Removal - 24-16
Rock Tokens - 17-10

Head to Heads:

MUC vs: RnR = 5-1
Angel Stompy = 3-3
Orzhov Blink = 1-2
MBC = 1-0
Rock Tokens = 2-1

RnR vs: MUC = 1-5
Angel Stompy = 2-0
Orzhov Blink = 1-0
Rock Tokens = 1-0

Angel Stompy vs: MUC = 3-3
RnR = 0-1
Orzhov Blink = 3-0
Rock Tokens = 0-2

Orzhov Blink vs: MUC = 2-1
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = 0-3
Rock Tokens = 1-2

Rock Tokens vs: MUC = 1-2
RnR = 0-1
Angel Stompy = 2-0
Orzhov Blink = 2-1

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

Like last week, the Orzhov build should be noted for it differences. Also as mentioned, the OWE deck was something new and different. Third, I should make mention that the last two weeks the RnR build that has been played has been changed to include Rav Rats once again, Skred as removal and more red in general. These adjustments seem to have helped it adapt to the more non Aggro meta and take a more pro-active approach than the earlier season build.

Final Thoughts:

So now that we have two weeks in a row, I am a bit on my seat to see what this weekend will bring. Players tend to get a bit tighter on their tech as Worlds approaches so I wouldn't expect to see major changes to things at this time. Then again, Classic never ceases to surprise me.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave