Running The Numbers #24

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic PDC, 7.15
Format - Classic, Matches

So Orzhov Blink takes a third in a row. Now, there are two ways to look at this. On the surface it would appear that with three wins O-Blink is now the Saturday deck to beat. However, these things often need a deeper look to see what may really be going on. Now don't get me wrong, O-Blink has certainly shown the ability to win this season as the addition of Mulldrifter has given it a much better long game than it had in the past. It surely is strong, but what must also be considered is that the three wins came from the same player in the last three weeks. During that time only two other players have played the deck, one doing well, the other not, but neither of those players played a similar build to the one that has won the past three weeks (similar in that there are several variations in the winning O-Blink build that have distinguished it). So, would submit that the recent O-Blink victories are being skewed by this player and not entirely by the power level of the deck. This is something that we see in Classic where individual deck design and loyalty are a bit more widespread than in other formats. A single player or two may throw off the results (positively or negatively) for any deck if they play it enough. So, more than anything I think this past Saturday teaches us to look beyond just a list of decks or top 8's when we review results. There may be much more to learn underneath. Running down the rest of the event, it was a tight field of 13 overall, but a lot of solid play in there. I liked the Mono Black Aggro deck that played to 3-2 Finish. It appeared to be very fast. GB Dredge appeared in a revised and improved form. It did very well through the Swiss rounds and will be a deck to watch. A key for it will be the removal-control matchups. Finally, MUC was around this past week also and one appeared in the finals. I think I mentioned recently to watch out for them. This is how the field rounded out:

7.15 - 13 Players

Control - 3: RnR, MUC, MBC

Aggro - 4: MGA, Mono Black Aggro, GB Dredge

Midrange (aggro control) - 4: Orzhov Blink, RG Thresher, Deep Dog (2),

Control-Combo - 0:

Combo - 1: Freed

Aggro-Combo - 0:

Unknown - 1:

Gatherling Report: http://www.pdcmagic.com/gatherling/eventreport.php?event=Classic%20PDC%207.15

Worlds Preview:

OK, so rather than make a whole build-up, I'm going to jump right in with the info. Hopefully this will give you enough prep for Worlds next weekend. As usual in Classic there are a number of decks you need to be aware of due to the large card selection and large number of designers in the player pool. I'm going to start off here by presenting the decks I feel you should be most aware of come Saturday. All have performed well this season, present a threat factor when played to their potential, and are the most widely played decks in the Classic PDC event. As a note, I am not presenting these decks in any order of power level as I think that is too debatable a topic for me to do myself.

MUC:

MUC has won multiple events this season and should be considered a top deck. This is the accepted build that has been played this season. I would be surprised if it did not show up at Worlds.

Maindeck
4 Counterspell
1 Dream Stalker
1 Echoing Truth
4 Exclude
1 Fathom Seer
4 Force Spike
20 Island
4 Lonely Sandbar
1 Muddle the Mixture
1 Remove Soul
4 Piracy Charm
4 Prohibit
3 Repulse
4 Spire Golem
4 Think Twice

Sideboard
4 Hydroblast
2 Deep Analysis
1 Dream Stalker
4 Annul
1 Errant Ephemeron
3 Faerie Trickery

Strengths - Adaptable versus open field with counter based defenses.
Reputation is intimidating for opponents
Strong throughout the game (early, mid, late)
Excellent post-board tutoring options
Versatile cards (Exclude, Repulse, Spire Golem, Piracy Charm) provide efficiency of design
Weaknesses - Is a big target that everyone prepares for
Can be susceptible to fast aggro swarms
Runs few win conditions that are also relatively fragile
Strategies To Employ Vs - Cast early 1-2 mana threats with good power to cost ratios in a rush
Beyond early game, refill hand and hold threats to cast multiples in a turn
Focus on removing win conditions and making it have to beat you
Lessen effectiveness of cards through play (Hold lands for Piracy Charm, plan casting to bait
certain counters, play around Force Spike)
Variants you may see - Only one general build is really being played right now.

Cpdc Season Record 50-21
Matchups -
RnR = 7-1
Angel Stompy = 3-3
Orzhov Blink = 2-3
MBC = 2-0
Rock Tokens = 2-1
Freed = 3-2
UB Ninja = 1-0
RB Husk = 3-1

Freed Combo

Freed hasn't brought home a win this season, but it is always on my radar. Why? Because when you aren't ready for it that is when it hits you in the face. I also must add a note that this deck is constantly under tinkering by its designer to improve its own protection or disruption so you must be aware that the build you see could shift a bit. However, the general structure typically remains.

Maindeck
1 Brainstorm
1 Kaervek's Torch
1 Utopia Sprawl
1 Viridian Longbow
4 Dizzy Spell
4 Drift of Phantasms
4 Fertile Ground
4 Freed from the Real
4 Gigadrowse
4 Lifespark Spellbomb
4 Train of Thought
4 Trinket Mage
1 Darksteel Citadel
1 Great Furnace
1 Seat of the Synod
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Tree of Tales
2 Izzet Boilerworks
3 Snow-Covered Forest
4 Simic Growth Chamber
4 Terramorphic Expanse
6 Snow-Covered Island

Sideboard
3 Echoing Truth
4 Hydroblast
4 Moment's Peace
4 Pyroblast

Strengths - Has a surprise factor, certain fields are tailor made for it
If you aren't ready there isn't much you can do to stop it
Has been tuned at this point to fight most common defenses against it going off
Weaknesses - Sometimes it just doesn't "go off"
Can be beaten by aggro rushes
MUC can be a difficult matchup
Strategies To Employ Vs - Kill it before it kills you
Have a no mana method to destroy or do 3 damage to a creature (note: they can get
around this with a Darksteel Citadel kill, but it slows things down)
Disruption in the form of discard & LD. Basically anything that will slow it.
Variants you may see - There is a Aggro Combo variant called Bug Zapper that is also played
much less. It is structured around a UB Cavern Harpy 187 package with the Freed
Combo slipped in.

Cpdc Season Record 9-9
Matchups -
RnR = 1-0
Angel Stompy = 0-1
Orzhov Blink = 1-3
MBC = DNP
Rock Tokens = DNP
MUC = 2-3
UB Ninja = DNP
RB Husk = DNP

Orzhov Blink

Orzhov Blink has come on late in the season to show very well in Cpdc. While I am still on the fence about the overall power level of this deck against the other top offerings it is definitely improved with the addition of Mulldrifter and should not be underestimated or ignored. The build presented has been most successful in Cpdc but there are other ones you may see as well. This build uses Echoing Decay for better defense vs Aggro swarms (and gains CA), Only runs 2 maindeck Mulldrifters and thus less Karoos to lessen manabase problems, runs a bit more disruption with Skinobis & Castigate main, and uses Blightspeaker to both supplement draw and gather life gain when needed.

Maindeck
2 Blind Hunter
4 Castigate
1 Dimir Aqueduct
4 Echoing Decay
1 Island
2 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
2 Orzhov Basilica
4 Pillory of the Sleepless
7 Plains
4 Ravenous Rats
2 Rend Flesh
4 Shrieking Grotesque
7 Swamp
2 Aven Riftwatcher
1 Azorius Chancery
2 Blightspeaker
1 Grim Harvest
4 Momentary Blink
2 Mulldrifter
4 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
2 Blind Hunter
2 Rend Flesh
3 Seal of Doom
2 Stinkweed Imp
2 Aven Riftwatcher
2 Blightspeaker
2 Guardian of the Guildpact

Strengths - Very disruptive versus control decks
Versatile options with lifegain, removal, lifedrain, CA, discard, and aggression with 18 creatures
Strong lifegain is difficult for Red decks to attack
Weaknesses - Bad Removal. Pillories are easily dealt with by many decks and other removal is a
bit too specific to be effective in Aggro meta
Poor matchups vs Green Aggro in general
Not as strong taking the control role
Other more widely played builds are weak vs LD
Strategies To Employ Vs - LD on Blue sources can be a big problem for them
Use removal on Blink activations
Have a sac outlet to avoid Pillories and Decay
Have recursive elements to balance discard
Variants you may see - The more widely played version has seen success as well in the Tuesday
even so I don't want to give the impression that it is awful. I simply think this variant has
more exploitable weaknesses. For comparison the alternate build is below.

Maindeck
4 Blind Hunter
4 Mulldrifter
4 Phyrexian Rager
4 Shrieking Grotesque
3 Guardian of the Guildpact
3 Ravenous Rats
2 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
4 Eyeblight's Ending
4 Momentary Blink
4 Pillory of the Sleepless
1 Grim Harvest
8 Swamp
6 Plains
4 Terramorphic Expanse
2 Dimir Aqueduct
2 Orzhov Basilica
1 Island

Sideboard
3 Aven Riftwatcher
3 Faith's Fetters
3 Oblivion Ring
2 Castigate
2 Shred Memory
2 Terror

Cpdc Season Record 37-22
Matchups -
RnR = 1-0
Angel Stompy = 0-4
Freed = 3-1
MBC = 1-0
Rock Tokens = 1-2
MUC = 3-2
UB Ninja = 0-3
RB Husk = 2-1

GB Rock

GB Rock is one of those decks that is not played by a lot of people, but does consistently well in tourney appearances. I would classify it as Aggro Control and it plays both games well. I don't expect it to be played on a large scale, but if seen, it is to be prepared for with appropriate defenses.

Maindeck
4 Carrion Feeder
4 Deathspore Thallid
4 Elves of Deep Shadow
4 Faceless Butcher
4 Nantuko Husk
3 Festering Goblin
3 Mesmeric Fiend
4 Fists of Ironwood
4 Last Gasp
4 Scatter the Seeds
7 Forest
7 Swamp
4 Golgari Rot Farm
4 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
3 Duress
3 Echoing Courage
3 Grim Harvest
3 Naturalize
3 Shred Memory

Strengths - Versatile and adaptable with solid Aggro attack (swarm & pumped creatures) and
quality disruption in main & side.
Strong vs control with swarms vs counters & sac outlets to avoid removal
Strong in control role using tokens, Faceless Butcher, Last Gasp, Naturalize, Deathspore Thallid
Weaknesses - Susceptible to sweeper spells
Lack of real draw spells leave it possible to lose steam
"Protection from Black" can hurt current removal
Strategies To Employ Vs - Use sweeper spells
Target pumped creatures in response
Stop early token generation to slow velocity
Use evasive and untargetable creatures
Variants you may see - Not really any big variations out there in this mold.

Cpdc Season Record 17-10
Matchups -
RnR = 0-2
Angel Stompy = 2-0
Freed = DNP
MBC = 1-0
O-Blink = 2-1
MUC = 1-2
UB Ninja = 2-0
RB Husk = 1-1

UB Ninjas

This combo has been popular as a strategy for a very long time; UB Ninjas did well in a couple of variations this season. The build I will show is the higher finishing, but note that if you happen upon the archetype I am not sure which it will be. Like the name denotes, it abuses 187 creatures and the Ninja mechanic to generate CA and disruption.

Maindeck
2 Barren Moor
4 Chittering Rats
1 Cloud Sprite
3 Duress
2 Echoing Decay
7 Island
1 Leonin Bola
1 Lonely Sandbar
4 Ninja of the Deep Hours
3 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
4 Ravenous Rats
1 Seat of the Synod
9 Swamp
4 Trinket Mage
1 Vault of Whispers
1 Viridian Longbow
1 AEther Spellbomb
4 Augur of Skulls
3 Eyeblight's Ending
2 Nightshade Stinger
2 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
3 Annul
3 Condescend
1 Duress
1 Echoing Decay
2 Nausea
2 Terror
1 Eyeblight's Ending
2 Grim Harvest

creatures to generate card advantage and advance its board position with Ninjitsu & Cogs. It is based in Black and Blue and so it is a bit more Control oriented that those other two decks. On the positive end, It can be very strong when it is able to establish early attackers leading to Ninjitsu threats, early disruptors like Augur of Skulls, and Trinket Mages. Through the first few turns of generating successful CA it has then hopefully created a swarm of attackers and a full hand of resources to an empty handed opponent and a couple of creatures that can be locked down with a Bola. There are some weaknesses here to be exploited though and I'd be remiss to not point them out as well. In many ways I feel the build is at odds with itself. It is at once trying to be a deck with many Control elements, but with the nature of the Ninjitsu mechanic it is difficult to establish a defensive posture when you need to attack in order to most successfully use it. Second, Blue Black has long been a strategy lacking for reach. The deck features many small creatures, but no real manner to deal damage beyond them or evasion within them (save for a few 1/1's). I also see this as a problem when facing decks with more solid defenses. It will have to take the Aggro role in these contests and it doesn't quite have the power to mount such an attack against mass removal or superior card advantage. Overall, I feel it is a good deck in its current form, but that it needs to commit further to one strategy to attain it higher success.

Strengths - Generates fast presence on the board with Ninjas & 187 effects while maintaining a
full hand
Can use disruptive elements to maintain control
Weaknesses - Small creatures are susceptible to sweeper spells
Lacks reach
Removal is not sufficient to stop top Aggro decks
Strategies To Employ Vs - Sweepers will clear established board
Creature rush can be made before defenses are established
Burn strategies are difficult for it to combat
Variants you may see - As mentioned there are other versions. Generally they move more to the
controlling end of things.

Cpdc Season Record 11-10
Matchups -
RnR = 1-1
Angel Stompy = 1-0
Freed = DNP
MBC = DNP
O-Blink = 3-0
MUC = 0-1
Rock = 0-2
RB Husk = 2-1

MBC

I think MBC has been around since the dawn of time and everyone has tried it at some point. In an Aggro meta it is always an excellent choice, but Cpdc has been slanted to Aggro Control of late so it is hard to say if we will see it at Worlds. However, keep in mind that one of the best (more difficult building) aspects to MBC is that is has a very deep card pool to choose from in both removal and disruptive tools of all sorts so it is certainly possible someone is tinkering in their workshop with something for this expected field also. This build took home a win at the mid point of Cpdc this season and runs a good mix of disruption and removal.

Maindeck
Creatures
4 Augur of Skulls
4 Phyrexian Rager
3 Twisted Abomination
2 Crypt Rats
2 Warren Pilferers
4 Corrupt
4 Duress
4 Eyeblight's Ending
4 Innocent Blood
4 Tendrils of Corruption
2 Grim Harvest
18 Swamp
3 Barren Moor
2 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
4 Coffin Purge
4 Dross Golem
3 Wrench Mind
2 Mournwhelk
1 Consume Spirit
1 Crypt Rats

Strengths - Only real usable wrath effect in Crypt Rats
Good Disruption, removal (with a qualifier), and win conditions
Powerful lifegain spells to fight burn
Weaknesses - Can be susceptible to color hosers
Much removal has targeting limitations thus weakening it (i.e. Eyeblights Ending is a liability vs
Angel Stompy)
Can be mana hungry making it a bit slow
Strategies To Employ Vs - Use untargetable or protected creatures and spells
Use draw or recursion to balance discard
Have appropriate removal for its win conditions
remove its recursive abilities
Variants you may see - There are many variations possible of MBC which I think holds it back
sometimes because its as if the deck is in a constant mode of testing. You can see variations
distinguished by how much removal vs discard they run and how many creatures they run
most often.

Cpdc Season Record 14-15
RnR = 1-1
Angel Stompy = 1-1
Freed = DNP
UB Ninjas = DNP
O-Blink = 0-1
MUC = 0-2
Rock = 0-1
RB Husk = 2-0

Angel Stompy

I would classify Angel Stompy as the best Aggro deck currently in PDC. I has has some troubles lately, but I think this is due to build tinkering and a larger than usual amount of decks in the current meta that can give it problems. It is basically a low mana Green aggro deck with Armadillo Cloak as a winning splash.

Maindeck
4 Basking Rootwalla
4 Elvish Warrior
4 River Boa
4 Silhana Ledgewalker
4 Skarrgan Pit-Skulk
4 Tangle Golem
4 Wild Mongrel
3 Llanowar Elves
3 Quirion Ranger
4 Armadillo Cloak
4 Predator's Strike
13 Forest
4 Selesnya Sanctuary
1 Tranquil Thicket

Sideboard
4 Gather Courage
4 Mire Boa
4 Moment's Peace
3 Sundering Vitae

Strengths - Very fast and able to build large scale attacks quickly
Low threat density provides virtual card advantage
Armadillo Cloak provides "reach" and endgame card
Weaknesses - Relatively fragile creatures are easy to remove
Sweeper spells can devastate
No draw to rebuild
Strategies To Employ Vs - Make it work for its damage through advantageous blocking
Do not let a Cloak stick or stay active
Remove mana producers to slow velocity
Respond to enhancements with removal
Variants you may see - There is a close Mono Green Aggro build that swaps Bonesplitter for
Cloak to be slightly faster, but losing the "I win" factor. It is also good, so be aware when
Sideboarding that enchantment removal may not be the best defense (not that is is vs Angel
anyway)

Cpdc Season Record 26-17
Matchups -
RnR = 0-2
MBC = 1-1
Freed = 1-0
UB Ninjas = 0-1
O-Blink = 4-0
MUC = 3-3
Rock = 0-2
RB Husk = 2-0

Rats & Removal

RnR is a board control deck that can be seen as a middle ground between Orzhov and MBC but with better removal and bit more speed. This season the deck has shifted a bit more to the MBC side of things to combat better burn in the card pool and madness triggers. I feel it is the strongest board control option available because it offers the best removal there is. This build was played in Cpdc 7.06. Current variations may be slightly adjusted for the metagame so be aware

Maindeck
4 Chittering Rats
4 Phyrexian Rager
3 Crypt Rats
3 Gravedigger
3 Stinkweed Imp
2 Gutless Ghoul
2 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
4 Innocent Blood
4 Tendrils of Corruption
4 Terminate
2 Grim Harvest
2 Last Gasp
17 Snow-Covered Swamp
4 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Rakdos Carnarium

Sideboard
3 Augur of Skulls
3 Coffin Purge
3 Dross Golem
3 Strangling Soot
2 Nausea
1 Gutless Ghoul

Strengths - Excellent removal and disruption including creatures
Many opportunities to create 2 for 1 trades generate significant CA for a non-Blue deck
High creature count is difficult for other control decks to defend
Weaknesses - Decks with high CA levels give it difficulty
Can be "burned out" by MBC in virtual mirror match
MUC is very hard to beat
Strategies To Employ Vs - Remove its recursive ability
Out draw it
Use protection from Black and Cop: Black (although it does have answers)
Variants you may see - Variants may use a different removal package, more Red, different 187
creatures

Cpdc Season Record 25-19
Matchups -
Angel Stompy = 2-0
MBC = 1-1
Freed = 0-1
UB Ninjas = 1-1
O-Blink = 0-1
MUC = 1-7
Rock = 2-0
RB Husk = 1-0

RB Husk

RB Husk has been played loyally by a few people this season and for that reason it deserves mentioning. It is and Aggro deck capable of fast kills with disruptive elements to breck up opponents plans along the way.
It has done well at times, but I don't consider it quite there yet as a true contender.

Maindeck
4 Carrion Feeder
4 Keldon Marauders
4 Mogg War Marshal
4 Nantuko Husk
3 Phyrexian Rager
2 Stingscourger
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Grim Harvest
3 Last Gasp
3 Seal of Fire
3 Terminate
1 Terror
7 Mountain
6 Swamp
4 Rakdos Carnarium
3 Terramorphic Expanse
2 Barren Moor
1 Forgotten Cave

Sideboard
4 Crypt Rats
3 Pyroblast
3 Stinkweed Imp
2 Flaring Pain
2 Incinerate
1 Seal of Fire

Strengths - Low curve provides for fast attack backed by removal and disruption
Can shift to controlling mode when needed
Weaknesses - Can lose steam against decks with life gain
Not very evasive or difficult to destroy creatures
No draw
Strategies To Employ Vs - Attack pumped creatures
Use lifegain
Variants you may see - There are two builds that have been played that vary in levels of
disruption

Cpdc Season Record 20-22
Matchups -
RnR = 0-2
MBC = 0-2
Freed = DNP
UB Ninjas = 1-2
O-Blink = 1-2
MUC = 1-3
Rock = 1-1
Angel Stompy = 0-2

So that rounds out the group of top decks we may see. There are others though that should also be considered and I will mention them as well again in no particular order:

GB Dredge: This deck has only recently been rounding into shape. It is structured around Dredge, a bit of threshhold, a bit of madness, and other synergistic spells. It is able to run on a very low land count and is quite fast as well. Additionally, it is structured to "draw" from its graveyard thus expanding its hand and removing dead draws. Post board it can use Haunting Misery as a combo kill element. There are some drawbacks as I see it though. Its creatures are not the most hearty or evasive and unless they hit quickly the deck can lose its initial burst. Also, it is a bit transparent and thus it can be disrupted a bit easier than some other aggro decks that don't need all parts to work together as well.

RW Aggro: I have felt throughout the season that with MUC strong that this was a good choice for Aggro players because of its various tools versus that enemy. It just hasn't been played much though and I'm not sure why. When built properly it can combine White/Red's creatures with Red's burn and White's sideboard options to present a versatile and fast attack with good protection also. On the downside, it can be a little slower than decks like Burn Range and Angel Stompy and it does not contain good CA. So, it must be played very tightly to do well. Also, with current decks having good lifegain spells it is more difficult to with burn

GW Cloak: This Cloak deck is a close brother to Angel Stompy that is slower, with more White and slower creatures but a more versatile sideboard and harder to kill creatures. Basically, in a field with removal this is a better choice. In a field of counters and other Aggro, Angel Stompy is better. Both are very good and it really come down to a metagame read more than anything

RG Thresher: This deck is like RG Beats but with some bigger creatures and enough disruptive elements that in becomes Aggro Control. When used well it can be very good because its creatures can win vs Aggro decks and it also can remove threats. It is also quite good against Aggro Control decks because it uses Stone Rain and other temp plays to throw them off of their development while advancing its own. It has been played more in the late season, but I am not sure it will be seen, just know of it. Its lack of real draw can be a negative in control matchups and I am not sure yet how it will fare in a heavy Aggro meta because it may not be able to stop large swarms of the fastest decks.

Grand Entrance/Stars & Cogs: I put these two together because they use the same engine to accomplish the same goal. Both call upon Momentary Blink, Trinket Mage, Leonin Squire, and several Cogs. Both hover around the Aggro control category, but their real strength is that they present good swarming attacks combined with one of the best draw engines PDC can offer. These two elements make it very hard to fight both Grand and S&C for any opponent. Now if this were a TPDC review I'd put these 2 decks as one you will definitely see. Cpdc has been very different in this though and they just haven’t been played as much there. So, I can't say that you will or will not at Worlds for Cpdc, I suppose it depends on the sneakiness of the players.

Bg/Bu Control: Two Black color splash decks were played this season to some success in Cpdc that you may want to be aware of on Saturday. In limited play I don't have extensive info for them, but I can say that the Green splash uses Sprout Swarm, Golgari Rotwurm, and enchantment removal in the side. The Blue splash is basically for Mulldrifter. Both are attempting to shore up certain holes in the solid MBC core and they have done well in the process.

Affinity: I think we all know how this works. It hasn't done well this season with only a few good finishes, but I never ignore it and neither should you. Pay close attention to Somber Hoverguards. Do not let a Rush resolve, and remember they may be holding a Scale.

Burn Range: Last up is Burn Range. This deck has had a lot of problems this season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it on Saturday, as it is one of the most popular still. Simply put, there is been so much life gain in the current metagame that a deck single minded on Burn is just very hard to win with. Still it is definitely dangerous enough to win in 4 turns in any game and it could go on a run against the unprepared so be one of them.

Season Metagame Breakdown:

Played Decks:

Final Thoughts:

Ok, I've got nothing left. Hopefully you have an idea of what you will see at worlds on Saturday. I do have additional deck info if there is something I didn;t cover here so just ask in the comments area and I'll see if I can find it. Good luck to all.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave