Running The Numbers #25

For lists of the entered decks, you can refer to the Gatherling Entry for the Event here:

Gatherling Entry

For information on the event itself you can find the Event Thread here:

Event Thread

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

     With the smaller event size, the event moved to a Top 4 elimination to determine the victor. Representing the field were (qualified in this order at 3-1) Grand Entrance, Deep Dog, MUC, and Burn Range. All archtypes with strong histories, but different recent success. Specifically Deep Dog and Burn Range have not seen the top end in a bit. In the Semis, Burn Range (a sub-optimal build in my opinion, but it was effective) defeated Grand Entrance. Typically, this would be a matchup that is tuned in the GE deck's favor. I would expect if they met again adjustments could be made to change the outcome. In the other semi, MUC faced off against Deep Dog in a re-match of their round four battle. This time it went the other way as Deep Dog came out ahead. The key factor here appeared to be the addition of Negate in the counter arsenal of DD. It enabled much easier countering of MUC's spells than has ever been possible which in turn enabled it to cast creatures that MUC just could not reasonably deal with. In the Final, one would expect Burn Range to emerge victories as it has a faster clock than Deep Dog and can typically end the game before the Madness/Threshold game comes online.

In the spotlight this week I want to take a look at this week's winning deck.

Deep Dog
Maindeck                                                                              

4 Basking Rootwalla
2 Deep Analysis
7 Forest
1 Golgari Brownscale
8 Island
1 Lonely Sandbar
2 Springing Tiger
1 Tranquil Thicket
4 Werebear
4 Wild Mongrel
4 AEther Burst
4 Looter il-Kor
4 Rune Snag
2 Simic Growth Chamber
4 Terramorphic Expanse
4 Think Twice
4 Negate

Sideboard
3 Echoing Truth
1 Golgari Brownscale
4 Liquify
3 Nantuko Vigilante
4 River Boa

Deep Dog is a named for the cards Wild Mongrel and Deep Analysis, but it is more a conceptual combination of aggressive Green creatures and Blue draw and disruption that use the Madness and Threshold mechanics to cheat costs better than almost any deck. I think Deep Dog has been around since the dawn of time. At least it feels like it. The deck has always been strong, but it has also always been one of those decks that is playable in some metagames more than others (yes you can say this about any deck I suppose, but it applies to some more than others.) Deep Dog has always had certain difficulties against heavy Black removal and "Red" decks. It is a strong aggressive deck, but it is not the fastest deck and not able to overwhelm those before they can set up their removal. However, in Meta's where those decks are lacking, it is able to play powerful and cheap threats backed by disruption that is difficult for other Aggro to break through or block and hard for Counter control to handle. Also, the addition of Negate to its disruptive mix allows it to more easily stop spells than it could ever before. Another advantage of this build over many others is the us of Springing Tiger. While a bit more expensive, the price is worth it versus Red and Black for the greater difficulty to be removed. Overall, week 1 did not see it face a removal heavy deck and its match versus Burn was not indicative of a typical head to head so we will see how the future shapes up for this old dog. It is clear however that it has a new trick.   

The Field Analysis:

In the remainder of the field we had 4 decks with 2 wins a piece in the Swiss rounds. UR Ping, Elves!, Freed, and Spicy Stompy. UR Ping won a tourney last season, but I think it was a desk best suited for the surprise factor. In the long term it just doesn't have the power to handle the disruption or draw of some of the better AC decks and to that end if it cant beat those there wont be a suitable niche for it. The Elf Tribe continues to gain useful recruits so maybe they will build a good deck at some point. However, I think a better Mono G Aggro just uses all the best Green creatures. Freed reach more play last season that it has in a number of seasons. I am curious if that will continue. If so it will certainly impact the meta preparations so be aware that it is out there. Finally, Spicy Stompy is an Extended LD deck that has had some success. I don't think it is really strong enough to translate to Classic.  

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

As we move into the season I will present stats as they are accumulated. In the early going I will toss out some interesting facts should they come up.

This week's fun fact is...The last time Deep Dog won a tournament was way back in season 5 of TPDC. Before that was mid season 4 of Euro.

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

With this being the first event with Morningtide cards I was hoping to see a bunch on one side, but then not surprised I didn't see many on the other. There really just aren't a lot in the set to make an impact. As mentioned above, the biggest impact was felt by one card in the Deep Dog build:

At first Negate was looked at from the perspective of its place in Blue Control and dismissed as not good enough. Now that it has taken a place in Aggro or Aggro-Control U/x decks I think its more suitable place is clear. It is easily splashable to prevent removal or counters on turn 4 or later (after play of a creature or to protect for example). Previously, the best options here were Prohibit possibly needing 4 mana to counter say a Tendrils or Exclude or Counterspell with very difficult color needs.

Final Thoughts:

Week 1 gave us a smaller crowd and a different look than last season. going into week two I am not quite sure what to expect. Will Deep Dog be more widely played? Will Black removal show. Will more burn be present? I know I'll be there to find out. 

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave