Running The Numbers #27

 

 

 

 

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

Tournament Overview:

Event - Classic PDC, 8.03, 8.04
Format - Classic, Matches

After a couple of weeks off I am back with a double dip article covering the last two Saturday Classic events. First, to follow up on my last article, in 8.03 we saw a whole lot of lifegain in the field. The result was a lot less winning for Red decks. Again in 8.04 Red failed to Top 4, although the lifegain was down a bit from 8.03. We may see this ebb & flow the whole season and reading the Meta for the right timing will be key for Red players to win in events. In the most recent events we had MUC and GW Cloak taking it home. That gives us four different winners in the first four events of the season. This is somewhat different from last season where we had a very small group of top-level decks through the season. My feeling on this is that many of the better decks from last season are not being played at the moment. This can happen, as pilots like to dabble in new endeavors as seasons change. So, many tier two decks have moved forward at the moment. Now, this is not to say they will not stay there. Sometimes a tier 2 deck is such because no one is really working on improving it. So, at this point the door has been opened and if it stays open we may have a larger pool of top decks in Classic than we have seen in a few seasons. Something else to keep a close eye on in the coming weeks will be the ability of Deep Dog to stay at a top level in the Metagame. This deck can have some interesting effects on the landscape and I will touch on this again in the future as the season moves forward. Moving to the specific events, 8.03 had a quality turnout of 17 players. The event has decided to go with the DCI rules for round structure as based on attendance for future events and I think this is an excellent decision. The field for 8.03 was fairly balanced for a change in the early season. Usually it takes a while for the Control decks to come out and play, but it was a good split for this event. The deck breakdown for the event can be seen below. Following that we had 8.04 with 14 players. Apparently, the Control players went back into hiding for 8.04 as Aggro & AC were nearly all that was seen. The breakdown for this event appears below as well:

8.03:

8.03 Event Thread

 

8.03 Gatherling Entry

 

8.04:

8.04 Event Thread

 

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

8.03 -

The top 4 of this event was made up of Deep Dog entering at 4-0, and MUC, Bu Control, and GW Cloak making it in at 3-1. Deep Dog faced off against MUC in one Semi and lost a close match. This matchup is very interesting this season as it is clear Dog is giving MUC problems. If Red, Angel Stompy, and Deep Dog all become or are difficult matchups (I'm not saying they are poor per say, just difficult) for MUC then at some point it may become a shaky play in Classic and that has not happened in quite some time. In the other Semi Bu Control took out GW Cloak. This should be the expected outcome for this matchup so no surprise here. In the Final, MUC was the victor over Bu control. As a Bu player myself (and designer of the Gatekeeper/Mulldrifter version) I will say MUC is very hard to overcome, but I am convinced it can be done with proper sideboarding. That will have to happen some other day as MUC grabbed the trophy for this one.

8.04 -

In this event the Top 4 scaled down to Stars & Cogs at 4-0, GW Cloak & Grand Entrance at 3-1 and Deep Dog squeaking in at 2-2 due to a drop by the 4th place finisher: UB Ninjas. As a result, I think it is important not to overvalue the Deep Dog finishing second in this event. It is doing well, but its important not to go crazy about a finals finish. That being said, Deep Dog then faced S&C in the Semis and won out to face GW Cloak who toppled Grand Entrance in the other Semi. In the Final GW Cloak continued to have a resurgent season winning the event. Its brother deck, Angel Stompy, has not been played much this season and it has returned to prominence for the time being as the more prevalent Cloak deck.

The Field Analysis:

8.03-

With the answer to Burn in lifegain, the best finishes for Red decks this event was a pair of 2-2 finishes for a Burn Range and Mono Red Burn. Also finishing the event at 2-2 were Stars & Cogs, MBC, and one of the Uw control decks. Overall the field had many established archetypes with half of the lower finishers made up of less established decks in Classic.

8.04-

Like 8.03 the most wins for a Red deck this event was 2. Also winning 2 matches were GR LD and MGA. GR LD has never really gotten it done in Classic, but MGA has done well at times. The remaining decks were early drops mixed in with bad days for others.

 

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

As we have moved into week 4 I have accumulated a few season Stats so I will begin to present them starting this week with Overall Records and Times Played. Later I will add Head to Heads as matches add up.

Times Played:
Mono Red Burn - 6
GW Cloak - 4
Deep Dog - 3
Burn Range - 3
Grand Entrance - 3

Overall Records:
MUC - 8-3
GW Cloak - 13-5
Deep Dog - 12-5
Burn Range - 8-6
Mono Red Burn - 10-9
Grand Entrance - 5-6

 

Innovations, Changes, New Decks:

Form 8.03 I like the use of a White splash in a couple of Blue based control decks. My assumption is that the pilots were adjusting to the Red rise and needed the Lifegain. It was a different twist on the typical MUC and for that an innovative metagame solution (although the decks did not prove to be successful on the day).

For this week's Under the Knife, I am doing it down here because the majority of the decks we have seen from these events in the Top 4 are close in lists to one's I have covered in the past. So, you can always refer to the article archives if you want to see a list for say MUC. Even though it went 0-4 on the day in 8.03 I think the concept of a Uw control deck has possibilities in Classic today and I like that the pilot tried to innovate.

Under The Knife:

UW Control

Maindeck
4 Spire Golem
2 Aven Riftwatcher
2 Shimmering Glasskite
1 Dream Stalker
1 Fathom Seer
4 Counterspell
4 Exclude
4 Piracy Charm
4 Prohibit
4 Think Twice
3 Oblivion Ring
1 Echoing Truth
1 Faerie Trickery
1 Remove Soul
13 Island
7 Plains
2 Lonely Sandbar
2 Secluded Steppe

Sideboard
4 Faith's Fetters
3 Faerie Trickery
3 Hydroblast
2 Aven Riftwatcher
2 Echoing Truth
1 Oblivion Ring

Now, I am not saying this is a better option that straight MUC in an open field. Certainly Blue has many tools and has proven powerful. However this can be a different way to go and White may give you the ability to better fight some of the more powerful decks that are being played in Classic right now given the presence of Red and straight Blue's possible weakness to it. On the positive end of things in this build, the use of White in a Blue base provides O-Ring to deal with many troublesome permanents after they hit the board. Riftwatcher and lifegain in general gives the deck extra turns versus Red.

Some elements that may improve things
* With 1 ofs you may want a way to tutor for them such as Muddle the Mixture
* Errant Ephemeron may prove to be a better win condition than Glasskite for power level and speed that it kills
* Azorius Chancery could be used in the mana base
* Exile could be looked to from the side to handle aggro decks instead of Fetters

These are just some quick thoughts without testing; I don't suggest any optimal build here. I am merely putting this on forward as "food for thought".

Final Thoughts:

With version 3 here I am excited to be back in the fold. With the new version we may see a lot more players in the community and with that I would expect Aggro type decks with more Standard format cards in them. I often find a newer player will gravitate to these things. We have seen a great amount of diversity so far in the first 4 weeks so it is had to say what to expect otherwise. Overall it looks like an open field right now with many viable contenders. I'm just waiting for my fix...

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave