Running The Numbers #28 |
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Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it. Before I begin, I wanted to mention that the deck reporting for TPDC so far this season has been a little lack luster. Only 80% of the decks have been reported through the first three completed events. I hope someone is assisting the host in gathering this info each event. It can be pretty hard to do while hosting and trying to play as well and still report full Meta info to the masses. The more reporting we can get, the more we can all benefit from the larger amount of information gained. Ok, now to the article.
With TPDC four events into the season (3 Completed), we have had some nice crowds and interesting results. Now as I mentioned, I don't have all the decks, so this article will be structured a bit different from my usual. I do expect it will catch us all up though with the happenings on Tuesday's in Season 8 thus far. Rather than run through each event I am going to take more of a broad view of the Meta of Events 1-4 and present a more stat heavy article than usual.
What's Being Played? First off, Lets look at what people have been playing this season in TPDC: Much like in CPDC, Burn strategies have been much more prevalent in the early going of TPDC this season with the top two most played decks falling into this category. Following behind is Orzhov-Blink, a very popular play from last season. Obviously it is very early into this season so one tourney with three plays can put a deck into third place on the list. I do expect though that this deck will continue to be one of the more widely played as it is fairly strong versus an open field and also more accessible to the newer players to the Classic format than some of the other power decks. Two other decks to keep an eye on are Blue Aggro and R/G Thresher. Blue Aggro can come in a few versions mixing creature bases, but the general strategy of Tempo, Counters, Draw and with beats is similar. R/G Thresher is one of those decks that is good, but just not widely played as of yet. Appearing to be a bigger R/G Beats it actually plays more aggro control but has the versatility to shift when need be. It has a lot of synergistic interactions with Madness, Threshold, Cycling, Sacrificing, Etc. and can generate a lot of early power. Not a deck to run up against unprepared. Of other mention, Cogs and Stripes (or Stars & Cogs, I can't keep track) along with Grand Entrance have been underplayed thus far. They have been very powerful in TPDC in seasons past along with a more Aggro Control/Midrange meta there. We will say if that trend continues. There have been some MUC, MBC, and GW Cloak plays as well, all at three a piece. I'd expect these to stay played through the season as they are always player favorites. Finally, for a deck we haven't seen just yet. Deep Dog has been performing well in CPDC, but nary a play here. That strikes me as odd. Maybe they are cat people.
Strategically, I don't want to commit too far without having 20% of the decks reported. However, Aggro has shown up by a large enough margin in the early weeks to be the prevailing choice. Aggro Control/Midrange has followed this. I'd say in general these items do not surprise me. TPDC has been classified for the last couple of seasons with a lower population of control decks. Typically I would expect to see the number of pure aggro decks (especially Burn strategies as lifegain is more played) to level off a bit towards an even split at least with the A/C decks. We will see if Control decks rise in level. I suspect it will relate to how long the high Aggro numbers last. A graph to illustrate the breakdown is below:
What is Winning? After the dust has settled each week the Tuesday event scales down to a Top 8. In the first 3 Completed events these are the resulting groups along with their swiss records for the day.
1. Out of 10 Decks, only one Red deck made top 8. 2. 3 Blue Aggro, 2 Grand Entrance, 3 R/G Thresher, 4 O-Blink Played - 3 Blue Aggro, 2 Grand Entrance, 3 R/G Thresher, 3 O-Blink in the Top 8's...Some decks need to be played more. 3. Grand Entrance 6-0 In Swiss and 1 Tourney Win Out of the 3 Completed events there have been three different winners so far just like CPDC Grand Entrance - R/G Thresher - Blue Aggro These are diverse desks, but it jumps out at me looking at the Top 8's and at the winners that common threads of Aggression backed by Disruption or strong Card Advantage seem to be prevailing in the early going of season 8. I realize this is only 3 tournaments, so take all of this with that in mind. Still, look for trends and use them to you advantage.
Final Thoughts With Version 3.0 here it is hard to say what to expect from the tourneys in the next few weeks. The attendance numbers are hard to predict. TPDC 8.04 was the first Classic foray on the new Client so it looks like we are a go. Hope to see many players out for 8.5. Hope you enjoyed reading Jaknife/Dave
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5:52 AM, 28 April 2008
Krirareq:
it is hard to say what is good versus such vastly differerent strategies. I think the important thing to look at in regards to Mono Red is that while very dangerous, it is not a deck you want to overcommit to in your own maindeck. First, because the lifegain tools that work well against it can hurt your game in other matchups an second, because what tends to happen is one week Red will be all over and then the next there will only be one deck because everyone builds for it. The better approach is to look at decks that have done well versus the 187 archtypes and that may have a fair chance preboard vs Red and then can address that matchup more heavily in the board.
3:19 PM, 25 April 2008
Indeed, v3 has done wonderful things for the good folks that make RAM. I'm going out to buy two new chips tonight.
That's a good analysis jaknife. So what do you bring in this meta? What beats both Red Aggro and 187 Aggro-control?
1:18 PM, 25 April 2008
Ok, fixed
and I even figured out the pesky gap dilema too
12:42 PM, 25 April 2008
Thx Gimmie, Now that you mention it, It totally becomes obvious. I'll have to edit my graph
12:22 PM, 25 April 2008
Nice article. I look forward to reading these.
Just a quick note, TPDC 8.04 cut to top 4 as opposed to the usual top 8 due to low turnout.
I myself didn't play because I needed to upgrade the memory on my machine to make v3 work ok. It has since been upgraded and I am looking forward to playing next week.
11:49 AM, 25 April 2008
Sorry about the huge gaps after the graphs folks, I'm trying to troubleshoot that, but can't figure out why it happens. for now think of it as aexcitement building feature for the next section.