Running The Numbers #29

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

What's Been Happening:

Event - Classic PDC, 8.05, 8.06
Format - Classic, Matches

Nice to see PDC is moving along again. The events are coming back to life on 3.0 despite continued UI crappiness (although I recommend players try the skins from the "Skin your dream" contest on the MTGO General forum, they make a huge difference). CPDC has seen ok attendance numbers of 12 in each of the last two events. Not earth shattering, but with a few more added in the coming weeks it will be in good shape. Red has continued to be a presence the past two weeks. It hasn't always won this season, but that isn't really as important as the total number of Red decks that have been showing up. Out of 79 reported decks so far this season in CPDC 18 of them has been Red Decks. With 23% of the field being burn players need to be prepared week to week at least in the side to face Red at some point at least for the near future. For defending the Red decks it is another issue. They have been coming in many different varieties so it is hard to say what you will come across week to week. Most popular have been the creature light Mono Red Burn decks. I wonder however if they are the best builds for Red players to choose in the end. Given a prepared metagame it is most prone to running out of steam and I think a better option for consistent play is Burn Range or RDW. Coming off of the increased Red play has perhaps led to more Warrens play as well. It is not only being used in straight combo, but Aggro as well. Players need to watch this trend because of the lack of defensive sweeper spells being played right now. It is interesting for its strength Vs Blue and as a closer to overcome White decks. On the downside, it may be a strain on mana bases and thus best relegated to the side in the grand scheme. Following behind the Red decks in popularity this season have been the Cloak variants. Aggro decks have surely been quite popular lately. In fact, by my figures, only 16 true Control Decks have been played so far in CPDC this season at all. Five of those have made the Top 4 and four have been piloted by one player so the Control stats may even be a bit better than they really are. It was at about this time last season that some more removal based control decks began to show up to react to the Aggro numbers. What may be a difficult challenge for them right now are the target light Red Burn decks. To defeat these and the creature threats as well they will need to look very hard at their chosen spells.
OK, moving into 8.5 and 8.6. As mentioned we had 12 participants in 8.5 with a very lopsided field. Seven of these were Aggro decks, two each of AC/Midrange and Control, and One Combo (breakdown below).

Aggro: 7: Mono Blue Aggro, GR Aggro Pump, Mono Red Burn, RDW (2), Mono Red Goblin Aggro W/ Storm
Angel Stompy
Control: 2: MUC, Bu Control
Aggro Control/Midrange: Grand Entrance, UBW AC
Combo: UR Warrens

This field featured a lower amount of lifegain strategies than typical (Grand Ent was a Round 1 drop and the UBW AC didn't face a Red deck before its 2nd round drop). I think it showed as there was little there to stop the Red Decks from placing three in the tourney's top 4. Important to note though is that MUC did not come out the loser head to head in its Red matchups. Previously this was regarded as a poor matchup for Blue Control. If Red wants to continue to be a contender in Classic it will have to retain the upper hand in this important battle.

Last Saturday, 8.06 also saw 12 players come out to join the fray. Its makeup was again slanted towards Aggro with 5 of that type present, 2 Control, 2 Control-Combo, and 1 AC/Midrange (we still have 2 unknown decks). This field was more exotic than the one from 8.5 with a few rogue archtypes and lesser played decks present. Also, only one Red deck was played while Angel Stompy and MUC had two players each. Overall, it was more like a field we would have seen last season in CPDC. The full breakdown is below.

Aggro: 5: Angel Stompy (2), Mono Red Burn W/ Warrens, Chilly Dog, GRw Aggro
Control: 2: MUC (2)
Aggro Control/Midrange: UB Harpy 187
Control-Combo: 2: RB Warrens, Uw Reality Acid

Top 4 (top 8) Analysis:

8.05 -

The top 4 of 8.5 Blue floating in a pool of Red. In the end Red came out on top. It has been thought that the MUC-Mono Red matchup would go against MUC. This tournament certainly suggested this may not be the case. At this point, a close look at the card choices should be made by Red players to determine what cards are best for a Meta where Blue must be beaten. I think Storm, the level of creatures/spells and the land counts in the Red decks are the most important factors here. In the Semis, MUC defeated a RDW build that also contained some long game elements like Firebolt and card choices of Mogg War Marshall and Gathan Raiders. In the other, A RDW with a very low land count of 16 and accompanying low curve was able to beat a Goblin Aggro deck tuned well with Storm weapons to face control, but not as well for other Red decks. In the Final MUC was able to beat the RDW to go 4-0 vs Red on the day.

8.06 -

The 8.06 Top 4 had a nice mix of decks in the Top 4 with a RGw Aggro, a MUC, a Mono Red Burn/Warrens, and a UB Harpy 187 deck. All 4 passed through the Swiss with three wins a piece. One pair had MUC facing Mono Red. I did not see the match so it is difficult to make too many assumptions, but I wonder if Warrens had an Impact here. MUC did fall in this one so looking at the Red build for help may be useful. In the other Match, RGw Aggro defeated UB Harpy 187. I think this matchup is a tough one for Harpy given the relative low amount of removal it carries and the creature mix of the RG deck. In the Final, the RGw Aggro won out over Mono Red. Again, I am not surprised as the tools in the RG deck just enable it to handle the more single minded opponent. I'll take a closer look at the RGw Build below.

The Field Analysis:

8.05-

The field of 8.5 contained a good number of quick drops. Bu Control and RG Aggro Pump managed two wins each, but they didn't beat the decks they really needed to in end.

8.06-

Of the also rans in 8.06, two Angel Stompy decks finished with 2 wins, but didn't quite get there with both losing in round 4. Also finishing with 2 wins was a RB Warrens Control/Combo deck. I don't have a list to discuss, but the name is interesting nonetheless.

Under the Knife:

RGw Aggro:
10 Forest
2 Mountain
2 Plains
4 Terramorphic Expanse
2 Tranquil Thicket
2 Forgotten Cave
2 Secluded Steppe
4 Basking Rootwalla
4 Kaervek's Torch
4 Krosan Tusker
4 Silhana Ledgewalker
4 Wild Mongrel
4 Armadillo Cloak
4 Werebear
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Incinerate

Sideboard
4 Ashcoat Bear
4 Teroh's Faithful
3 Ancient Grudge
4 Orim's Thunder

It has been a bit of time since RG Aggro has taken the top spot in Classic. In the current Meta this was a very good choice. With few removal decks to deal with its creatures, it presents a very strong attack on that front. The White splash provides answers to Enchantments and important lifegain elements. The deck also can do an excellent job against MUC with several sideboard weapons and difficult to answer maindeck tools as well.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

As we have moved through week 6 I have continued to accumulate season Stats. I will add Head to Heads as matches add up.

Times Played:
Mono Red Burn-8
MUC-5
Angel Stompy-4
GW Cloak-4
Grand Entrance-4

Overall Records:
MUC - 17-5
GW Cloak - 13-5
Deep Dog - 12-5
Mono Red Burn - 15-12

Final Thoughts:

I'd like to see some removal show up. Those players need to keep in mind the Warrens and creature light Red decks though. In truth, the best control option is likely Blue right now. One player that I am interested to see is O-Blink. It has solid games vs Burn and Blue. It will not do well in Green fields so it is a judgment call, but it has been play very sparingly this season.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave