Running The Numbers #30

Writers Note: If I happen to talk about your deck and you want to clarify something about how it works or its classification, you can email me at davebarone@aol.com and explain. Also, if you want your deck to be discussed then you have to post it in the event thread (note: this doesn't guarantee I'm going to) I can't really talk about a deck if I don't know what's in it.

What's Been Happening?:

Event - TPDC 8.05, 8.06, 8.07
Format - Classic, Matches

Moving into my bi-weekly schedule, I am going to cover the past three TPDC events in this article. The next TPDC article will then follow two weeks from now and cover 8.8 & 8.9. Hopefully this will give the Classic players what they need in terms of full coverage for both events. Now to talk about the events. The past three Tuesdays have continued to give us a diverse group of winners. Coming out on top have been Mono U AC, Stars & Cogs and Rats & Removal. The only repeat winner thus far this season has been the Blue attacking deck. Looking deeper, each week the Top 4 was made up of a completely different group of decks than the previous weeks. A few things could cause this. Different players coming, keen metagaming, experimentation, etc…What it means though is that it is very hard right now to predict from week to week what you will need to beat in TPDC. This type of top-level diversity makes it very difficult to know what to plan for. The best advice I can give for this is to bring a deck with versatility. If you are Control, make sure you do not load your deck with only creature removal because you may not find targets. If you are Aggro, do not be too single minded. Be careful in picking a deck that falls to one type of defense or that has few ways to deal with things.

            Attendance in the past three events has been solid and will soon climb back to 2.5 numbers and I am happy to see new players in TPDC along with the die hards. 8.5 saw 15 players, 8.06 18 and 8.07 16.

            The Fields for the events over the past three weeks have been somewhat consistent in their metagame makeup. Honestly, I am not very surprised at how they spaced out. Tracking back from last season the in TPDC the majority of the weeks saw a closer representation between Aggro and AC-MR strategies than you would see in CPDC. Control decks also continue to be seen in small but steady numbers most weeks with very few weeks having more than four at once. The field breakdown is below:

8.5 -

Aggro: 5 = MGA, Mono G Elves, Burn Range, Dredge Aggro, Affinity

AC-MR: 4 = Mono U AC, Orzhov Blink (2)

Control: 4 = MUC, Bu Control, MBC, RG Control

Agg/Com: 2: = Dredge/Misery, RGU Thresh/Freed

8.6 -

Aggro: 6 = GW Cloak (2), MGA, Dredge Aggro, GB Elves, Deep Dog

AC-MR: 6 = Mono U AC, Stars & Cogs (3), GBw Slivers/Saps, UR Pinger AC

Control: 1 = MUC

Combo: 3 = Freed (2), Goblinstorm

8.7 - 

Aggro: 6 = GB Elves, Deep Dog, Saps, GR Beats, GW Cloak, Mono R Burn

AC-MR: 5 = Mono U AC, RG Thresher (2), UR Ping, Orzhov Blink

Control: 3 = BUGw Teachings, RnR, URW Evoke Blink LD

AggCom: 1 = Mono R Born w Storm

Under the Knife:

For this edition of under the knife, I decided instead of picking out one deck and looking at it, it would be better to look at the three decks that I would consider the most solid choices right now for TPDC: Stars & Cogs, Mono U AC, and RG Thresher. The reason I choose these three is for flexibility against open fields, current season success, and defensive tools. Each of these can handle the more popular Burn and 187 strategies that are seen in TPDC right now, but also can play versus rogue types. Additionally, they have all put up good records this season and in the past as well (Note: they are listed in no particular order and these are played builds from the tourney's they are not nescessarily the optimal builds for play).

Stars & Cogs

1 Great Furnace
3 Mulldrifter
1 Bonesplitter
3 Leonin Squire
1 Ancient Den
1 Boros Garrison
4 Trinket Mage
2 Æther Spellbomb
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
3 Steamcore Weird
4 Momentary Blink
4 Aven Riftwatcher
1 Izzet Boilerworks
4 Island
1 Mountain
6 Plains
4 Ninja of the Deep Hours
4 Lash Out
1 Sunbeam Spellbomb
2 Azorius Chancery
4 Terramorphic Expanse
1 Seat of the Synod
3 Looter il-Kor

Sideboard
1 Viridian Longbow
1 Leonin Squire
4 Terashi's Grasp
1 Sunbeam Spellbomb
3 Echoing Ruin
2 Guardian of the Guildpact
3 Faerie Trickery

Mono U AC

4 Errant Ephemeron
4 Mulldrifter
4 Spire Golem
2 Dream Stalker
2 Ninja of the Deep Hours
2 Shaper Parasite
1 Fathom Seer
4 Cancel
4 Faerie Trickery
3 Remove Soul
2 Boomerang
2 Condescend
2 Thoughtbind
20 Island
4 Lonely Sandbar

Sideboard
4 Echoing Truth
4 Shimmering Glasskite
3 Think Twice
2 Foresee
2 Logic Knot

RG Thresher

2 Tranquil Thicket
4 Terramorphic Expanse
4 Edge of Autumn
7 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Forgotten Cave
6 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Gruul Turf
4 Stone Rain
3 Golgari Brownscale
3 Gathan Raiders
4 Basking Rootwalla
2 Springing Tiger
4 Wild Mongrel
4 Werebear
4 Firebolt
2 Lightning Axe
4 Fiery Temper

Sideboard
2 Hurly-Burly
3 Pyroblast
3 Swirling Sandstorm
3 Ancient Grudge
4 Serene Heart

Top 4 Analysis:

8.05 -

The top 4 in 8.5 came to a diverse group of decks. Mono U AC, MGA, Bu Control, and Mono G Elves took part in the elimination rounds of this event. Emerging from the Swiss with 3-0 records were the Elf deck and Mono U. In the Swiss, Elves fought MUC and MGA, two favorable matchups, but in the Semis the 2-1 Bu Control had to be a nightmare pairing. Bu Control came through this match with a predictable victory. In the other Semi, Mono U AC took on the 2-1 in Swiss MGA. MGA had made it in with a 1 victory / 1 bye record so it is hard to see its success in the Swiss. It is a fine deck, but I think given the defensive capabilities of Mono U AC combined with its offensive power are just too much of an advantage here. In the final, Bu Control faced Mono U AC. In my experience this is a tough one for Black based control. It is winnable, but the ability of the blue deck to replace its threats through draw while also countering removal attempts is very strong. Bu has one up on other Black builds in that it uses Mulldrifter to keep up in cards, but I have found it is often not enough. Emerging victorious here was the Mono U AC deck. It has been a solid option this season and I expect for it to continue to be played.

8.06 -

In 8.06 the event scale to a Top 8. The Top 8 pairs (I don't have the Swiss records) were GW Cloak vs Zubera Greed, Freed vs UR Agg-Con Ping, Stars & Cogs & MUC, and GB Dredge vs MGA. Zubera Greed is interesting and could perhaps be tuned to greater success. I do wonder if 4 Distant Melody are needed in the build with Dimir House Guard there as well and I wonder if some acceleration could help. However, I do like the use of Melody to take advantage of the Zubera type. I the matchup here it was not enough to topple GW Cloak. Freed next defeated UR Agg-Con Ping. The UR really didn't have an answer to Freed going off and isn't fast enough to win first so I'm not shocked by this outcome. I will say that I liked the differences in this UR Ping build versus previous types. This was a bit more Aggro oriented and able to force the issue while then using the pingers as both removal and damage dealers rather than a more passive approach. Moving to Stars & Cogs vs MUC, this matchup is one that can go either way these days. Most times I find it depends on the S&C build (although not always, there are exceptions) S&C pulled through this time with the win. S&C seems to be an ever-developing deck with such a large pool of possible plays. This build included Lash Out in the more typical Incinerate slot. Finally, MGA took on GB Dredge Aggro in the final quarter. Dredge Aggro has had a lot of work put into it over the past two seasons by a few players. This week was a solid showing indeed for the deck so perhaps the build is nearing refinement. Dredge Aggro won this quarter to move on to the Top 4. In the Top 4 Stars & Cogs defeated GW Cloak. Both are good decks, but Stars does pack the enchantment removal if needed and can also deal with most of GW's creatures while Evading to attack. Freed was taken down by GB Dredge in the other Semi to put S&C versus it in the final. Here, Stars & Cogs won out to take its first trophy of the season. Stars & Cogs has long bee powerful and popular in TPDC. I only expect it to be played more as the season moves on.

8.07

Finally, in 8.07 the event moved to a Top 4. RG Thresher returned from a two-event vacation to take two of these spots, both going undefeated in the Swiss. Thresher has been very impressive this season in TPDC. If the number of Red decks stays low here I would only expect its power to increase. It will have tough matches versus heavy removal/disruption decks that can reap enough CA to stay with it, but they are not widely played right now either. The other two slots were taken by an interesting URW Evoke LD deck and oldie but goodie RnR. The Evoke deck was based in the Red and Blue Evoke creatures with Momentary Blink and was backed by LD and burn. For TPDC it fit in well due to the slower overall climate. I am not sure it would do as well on Saturdays, but I did like the creativity involved. This is the first RnR sighting this season. The RB disruptive creature killer may be a good option if Aggro decks continue to be seen here. I liked the addition of Pyroblast in the sideboard. I am not sure that I agree with the removal of Chittering Rats from the maindeck, but they were simply replaced by other CA creatures so the structure of the deck is the same. RnR defeated Thresher in two successive rounds to take the trophy here. I find that a key in this matchup is Tendrils of Corruption for RnR. Once RnR switched to a more Black build and used it, it became able to take out the larger creatures of Thresher and stay alive past the mid-game much better.  

The Field Analysis:

8.05-

This event saw 4 decks missing out of the elimination rounds on breakers. RG Control, Dredge Misery Combo, Stars & Cogs, and MUC. RG Control has done well in the past but has not been widely played. Dredge Misery Combo is a deck that has shown up in the hands of its designer this season and it has been fairly impressive. It uses Dredge to dump creatures in the grave while also dredging out creatures to play. It the finishes with a lethal Haunting Misery. The most impressive thing I think is the amount of structure the deck has to handle problems that come up such as Golgari Brownscale, Reclaim, and Crypt Rats.

8.06-

I don't have the deck records for this event, but there were several solid archtypes that didn't make the elimination rounds. Stars & Cogs (2), Mono U AC, GW Cloak, Deep Dog, and Freed all missed out.

8.07-

In 8.07 another 4 decks failed to make the cut on breakers. BGUw Teachings is an new offering that I found innovative. Mystical Teachings based with Battlefield Scrounger to recycle and finish along with a few other large beaters and a very large tutor suite for whatever may happen. GW Cloak also missed the cut. It is putting up good numbers though and is probably the best straight Aggro option right now in TPDC. Deep Dog was also just out of reach along with Mono R Burn. The Burn deck population in TPDC has lowered drastically in recent weeks and even if it were at high numbers I don't know that they could fight through the amount of life gain currently available to the played decks.

Season Tracking & Head to Heads:

As we have moved through week 6 I have continued to accumulate season Stats. Next article, I will toss in the Head to Heads matchups as well.

Times Played:

O-Blink - 7

GW Cloak - 6

Mono Red Burn- 6

MUC-5
RDW - 5
Stars & Cogs - 5

RG Thresher - 5

Mono U AC - 5

Overall Records:
RG Thresher - 19-5
Mono U AC - 17-8
MUC - 14-6
Stars & Cogs - 11-7

GW Cloak 13-10

Mono R Burn - 9-7

O-Blink - 10-10

Final Thoughts:

Halfway there and this season has bee very diverse in TPDC. However, if you look at the top level there is a separation to be seen. The big remaining factor to see is whether there will be Black Control in the mix. RnR took the most recent trophy so it is possible. If this is so it changes the landscape a bit. We will see what comes next week.

Hope you enjoyed reading.

Jaknife/Dave