Running The Numbers #33 |
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4 Events, 4 Different winners and 13 different Top 4 decks. CPDC continues to be a tough event to get a handle on. Some trends can be seen though if you look into the numbers a bit, so let break things down and see what they are telling us... I've got a good bit of ground to cover here, so I'll jump right in with the info. Here are the Metagame breakdowns for weeks 8.9 - 8.12 in CPDC 8.9 Aggro - 6: Angel Stompy, GW Cloak, WW equip, Deep Dog, BG Madness, Boros Here we see the beginnings of a proliferation of UR Dragonaughts. It has been played in more unrefined forms previous to this, but it appears a more refined gameplan has begun to emerge. This list is from CPDC 8.10 (because none or the Dragonaught posted their lists from 8.9 - Please use Gatherling people) and is a good example of what to expect from this deck (given that there will be some variation in spells, but the theme is consistent). MAINDECK (No sideboard is given for this entry) The deck is centered around Wee Dragonaughts (and recently added Tattermunge Duo) attacking for very large point totals at one time. It uses cheap spells like Ponder, Lava Dart, Think Twice, and Lightning Bolt almost like a storm deck to build a very large attacker (with the Dragonaught & Duo pump abilities) in one turn. The deck can be very strong in environments like this where instant speed removal is not being widely played. However, I must admit I'm not completely sold on it as a contender. With such a small pool of creatures to depend on that are all somewhat fragile and little means to protect them, this is the type of deck that can do very well against unprepared metagames, but will falter against decks that have equipped themselves to fight it. I have lost to it twice myself though recently so it certainly capable and something to keep aware of in your own deck choice. Continuing the season's trend of very few Control decks, 8.9 only saw one entry. Ur(w) Control ended up winning the whole tournament though so there are certainly viable archtypes out there to defeat these Aggro heavy fields. 8.10 Aggro - 4: Deep Dog, UG Threshold, Chilly Dog, Mono Red Burn Here, we see some Control decks show up with a surprising total of 4. Will this continue? The field is also defined by the play of 3 UG decks of the Deep Dog family. This strategy has been much stronger in this season than in recent ones. It provides players with a good counter-strategy to the smaller Aggro decks like Angel Stompy with its use of larger threats (i.e. Stalking Tiger, Were Bear) while still allowing attacking gameplans. It is very good in the face of Blue Control especially since Negate has been added to its counter arsenal this season. Its biggest hole is versus straight Burn strategies that have faster clocks than it does. However, these Burn decks have been played less frequently in CPDC recently so the door may remain open for a bit. 8.11 Aggro - 6: GW Cloak, Deep Dog, GBw Deep Dog/Cloak, Chilly Dog, BR Husk, Mono Red Burn In 8.11 we see a field very similar to the previous week save for the lower count of AC-Midrange decks. Also, we can see a trend of played decks follow through these weeks. By 8.11 you could come to expect Deep Dog variants, Blue Control, Dragonaughts, and in general, a 40-50% or so Aggro representation to be present in the fields. 8.12 Aggro - 9: Blue Zoo, GRw Beats, WW equip, GBR Madness, GWB Tokens, Affinity, GR Beats, Pulling into last weeks 8.12, we see a small change toward Mongrel Aggro with burn (RG Thresher, GRw Beats) instead of Deep Dog. These decks may be better in the current CPDC Metagame given their ability to play more of a control game versus other Aggressive decks. Control is still mostly Blue and not widely played. Top 4 Stories 8.9 Ur(w) Control (1st) W vs WW Equip, W vs BG Madness, W vs Dragonaughts Grand Entrance (2nd) W vs BG Madness, W vs Deep Dog, W vs WW Equip Goblin Initiation (3rd/4th) W vs Grand Entrance, W vs UW AC, W vs UR Flash WW Equip (3rd/4th) W vs Ur(w) Control, W vs GW Cloak, L vs Grand Entrance One Control deck shows up and wins the day. UR(w) Control has not really been played beyond its designer so far, but it has been impressive. It has the Countering of MUC with Red's removal and Burn. Its main weakness in my mind is to very fast Aggro decks that are able to get under its counters and then stay on the board due to a higher toughness that can avoid dying to Red. In order to play Red it has had to drop some of the low end counters of MUC. MAINDECK UG Threshold (1st) W vs Ur(w) Control, L vs Rock, W vs URWG Mono Red Burn (2nd) W vs UW Renewal, W vs RG Big Mana, L vs Dragonaughts Dragonaughts (3rd/4th) Bye, W vs RWb Squire, W vs Mono Red Burn, Deep Dog (3rd/4th) W vs GRw Goblinstorm, W vs MUC, W vs Rock We have not seen a lot of Red Burn recently, but it did well on this day to a second place finish. I would still be aware of it on a week to week basis due to its power when unexpected. The Winner this week employed 4 Plains and 2 Aven Riftwatcher in its board to (I assume) fight this strategy. 8.11 RB Husk (1st) W vs Mono Red Burn, L vs UR(w) Control, W vs Chilly Dog (variant) Dragonaughts (2nd) Bye, W vs Deep Dog, L vs Ur(w) Control Ur(w) Control (3rd/4th) W vs UW Cogs, W vs RB Husk, W vs Dragonaughts GW Cloak (3rd/4th) W vs GRw Goblinstorm, W vs MUC, W vs UW Cogs Here, RB Husk may have finally broken through into an upper level deck. My opinion is that it is very good in low removal Metagames (such as we have now). Recent Shadowmoor additions of Rite of Consumption and Giantbaiting have pushed its attack forward at least a turn. 8.12 GRw Beats (1st) W vs Angelic Evocation, W vs RG Thresher, W vs GR Beats RG Thresher (2nd) W vs RG Thresher, L vs GRw Beats, W vs GWB Tokens Mono U AC (3rd/4th) W vs Dragonaughts, W vs Dragonaughts, L vs Blue Zoo Blue Zoo (3rd/4th) W vs GWB Tokens, W vs UW AC, W vs Mono U AC Wrapping things up we have CPDC 8.12. Last week was typified by old fashioned Ground and Pound with Burn. The winner, GRw Beats is interesting for its versatility against various Metagames. GRw Aggro/Burn/Cloak Final Thoughts: Some quick impressions from the past 4 weeks. - Bigger creature Aggro strategies such as Deep Dog and RG Thresher may have the advantage over Small and Fast attacking decks like Angel Stompy - Dragonaughts has been played a good bit, but its overall numbers (8 played & only 2 in the Elimination Rounds as well as relatively poor records for the qualifying decks) - So little removal based control as well as few overall Control decks (9 in 4 weeks) continues to help Aggressive strategies succeed - Very few Burn deck are being played compared to the early season Well, that wraps it up for this edition. Let me know if you like/dislike the different format. Hope you enjoyed reading. 4 CommentsLeave a comment |
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8:25 AM, 5 July 2008
Poly: yes, the Metas for the two Classic events have differed for quite a long time now. I think its is somewhat due to the players that attend, but then it is something that perpetuates itself because even if a few players create a shift others must react to it and thus the field in its entirety can become different.
Calathan: thx for the updated board. I think the problem with entering the faithful is possibly how you are entering it. Are you by chance leaving out the apostrophe "s" in the entry. Gatherling has to have card names be exact to register.
Shard: I feel Dragonaughts, while capable of pulling of stunning wins, is really a deck that can not (in the present card pool) consistently win. the fact is that having a deck centered around a small amount of creatures that needs to attack to win is ultimately safe enough to handle the disruption of that strategy. Classic decks don't have to specifically tune towards beating it because answers to that strategy are already widely played by other decks. Further, the record it has put up in Metas largely devoid of removal right now is only fair (the best CPDC finish for the deck has been 3-2 IIRC and both of those entrants got Byes. Given that it isn't dominating in a field where few decks have designed answers for it, I think that its chances once expected and planned for are decidely diminished.
2:30 AM, 5 July 2008
U/R draginauts is a good deck my newest addition to it comes from shadowmoor. Using crimson wisps to be able to give a creature haste is amazing in matchups like MBC where sticking one of 12-14 creatures is crucial. U/R Dragonauts is an archetype which may be fringe now but come eventide i would definitely plan to face it at least once per tourney.
8:39 PM, 4 July 2008
I changed the sideboard for the GRw deck since the last time I played it. The actual sideboard I used in CPDC 8.12 is:
3 Ancient Grudge
3 Mystic Zealot
4 Orim's Thunder
2 Pyroblast
3 Swirling Sandstorm
Mystic Zealot is really good, and I previously played it in the maindeck, but it has been removed in favor of ledgewalker. I think the Mystic Zealots are a lot better than Teroh's Faithful against everything but mono-red burn, and they also go well with Swirling Sandstorm. I actually think the zealots are better than ledgewalker in most matchups, but there are just a few matchups where I really think I need ledgewalker while none where I really must have the zealots.
Also, 4 Teroh's Faithful are missing from the sideboard of my U/R control deck there. Checking now, they seem to be missing from all of my decklists for that deck in Gatherling. I don't know if it is a Gatherling bug or something, since I can't believe I would have forgotten to enter them 5 times. Anyway, the white cards in the sideboard are for mono-red burn, but I haven't faced it since adding them, so I don't know how well they work.
7:43 AM, 4 July 2008
"So little removal based control as well as few overall Control decks (9 in 4 weeks) continues to help Aggressive strategies succeed."
I was going to question you there, since the last two TPDC winners have been Mono-Black Control. But then I remembered that this article is only about Saturday's event...
Interesting the difference between the metagames. A lot of it has to do with the players?
Also, glad to see some love for Gatherling. =)
Nice job sir, as always!